What’s happening in Alberta?

Jordan It was supposed to be the end of the pandemic and the start of the best summer ever.

Jason Kenney Clips On July the first, on Canada Day, Alberta’s public health measures will be lifted and our lives will get back to normal.

Are you glad that Alberta is open for summer and that Alberta will be open for good?

Jordan When Alberta reopened and removed almost all pandemic restrictions on Canada Day, there were a lot of nervous Albertans and a lot of concerned epidemiologists. But there were also millions of people who hoped for the best, who wanted Premier Jason Kenney and his government to be right. The sights and sounds of the next few weeks offered a glimpse at something close to normal, something that could maybe, hopefully be close for all of us. And then reality set in. And so did the Delta variant.

At that point in the summer, as it was clear the fourth wave was beginning across Canada, there was a choice to be made, put some restrictions back in place, use the tools that other governments were using to try to reign the virus back in or stay hopeful and wait and see and wait and see and wait. And here we are.

News Clips 1600 cases in a day. We’re also talking about 24 deaths in 24 hours.

We continue to do all that we can to increase capacity, particularly in our ICUs, where pressure on our staff, physicians and resources is intense.

We’re basically on the cusp of requiring to institute a triage protocol. These are the conversations that we’re having. This is literally war zone medicine.

Jordan Alberta is in bad trouble. Bad enough that provinces who are managing their own fourth waves are sending all the help they can. Bad enough that finally, even Jason Kenney had to do something.

News Clips …turmoil within the United Conservative Party and infighting over the government’s handling of the fourth wave of the pandemic.

…mandatory stay at home and work from home, gatherings limited to one household plus another, only up to ten people.

Jason Kenney clip The government has reluctantly decided to adopt the Restriction Exemption Program, a proof of vaccination program for participation in certain discretionary activities…

Jordan Reluctant vaccine passports, a cabinet shuffle, more COVID restrictions. Is all of it too little, too late? How much worse can this get before it turns around? And if this was entirely preventable, as many other Canadian provinces seem to be proving, why was nothing done to prevent it? And what happens now to the people of Alberta who are bearing the brunt of a government’s inaction? And what happens to the government itself and its leader who sat by for so long?

I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. This is The Big Story. Jason Markusoff is the Alberta correspondent for Maclean’s magazine, which means he’s in Alberta, which means I start by saying, Jason, I hope you’re safe.

Jason Thanks.

Jordan Take me back to the beginning of the quote, unquote, “best summer ever.” What happened on Canada Day?

Jason Canada Day, Jason Kenney stood in front of a big ‘Open For Summer’ sign that somebody in the Premier’s office or Alberta government made for branding purposes and he had some kind of pancake breakfast and he was holding events and he was happy to go around and hug people and celebrate and just welcome us into the post-pandemic age.

Jordan What was it like those first few weeks of no restrictions or almost no restrictions and open for business and back to normal? What did it feel like? I feel like this past summer here in Ontario was not that different from last summer in terms of masks, freedom, et cetera, et cetera. I can’t even imagine what it must feel like.

Jason When restaurants were reopening, a lot of people still didn’t go, and those who really wanted to go went. We also live in this bifurcated society in Alberta, where there are some people who are still very cautious and very wary and those who just can’t wait to get their masks off and get back to what seems like normal. Restaurants weren’t packed. Some were. Some were happy. Patios were doing great. Thank goodness this happened in the summer when there’s more opportunity to go outside. The Stampede went on. This seemed to be Jason Kenney’s big idea to open in time for the Calgary Stampede in early July. But even they were wary. They were much more wary of the consequences and liabilities of COVID spread than the provincial government and its health Ministry were. They had mandatory masking for all staff at the Stampede. They implemented what probably was the first mandatory proof of vaccine system for the big country music tent, Nashville North. So they were cautious. Some groups were cautious. A lot of places in rural Alberta that never wanted restrictions in the first place and tried to defy them often, they went full open. People had friends over for dinner parties and backyard gatherings and apartment cocktail shindigs like normal. Some people did. A lot of people didn’t, but enough people did that, well, we’re in this terrible situation right now.

Jordan So I think a lot of us know… everybody knows how bad the situation is now, and obviously none of that was probably a prudent idea. But at the time, I want to be fair. Was it regarded as a horrible idea by everyone? Was everybody raising the alarm like what were public health officials and epidemiologists there saying as this began?

Jason I’d say the midpoint was, it’s a really big risk. Our case counts peak quite high. Our third wave was even worse than the second wave, after a pretty mild first wave in Alberta. We went from in early May having 25,000 active cases to by the time we were in early July having 500-800 active cases. So things were really improved. The third wave had abated, vaccination seemed like they were doing their magic but we were still all distancing. The risk was once we all start getting back cheek to jowl to aerosol, we’ll start getting infected again, we’ll start spreading it again. But there seemed to be some people, a lot of people hopeful that Kenney’s big gamble was right, that we wouldn’t have this problem. I would say that’s where I sat, I thought it was a very dangerous, risky plan, but it could work. It seems to be potentially working in Britain. And case count seemed to be dropping all over the place. There were a lot of doctors and epidemiologists saying that this is very dangerous. But Kenney clung to the official recommendation that the chief medical officer of Health delivered to him, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, that this was prudent. She gave options, I’m sure this wasn’t her only option that she gave. But this is the one they took. And this is the one they clung to. And what’s worse than the fact that he took a gamble and was wrong was how confident he was that he was going to be right. His team, his aides and he, were saying the media, we’ve got to stop fear mongering about the risks of this pandemic. One of his aides said the pandemic is ending, get over it. A tweet that now lives on in Alberta infamy.

Jordan It is interesting how hopeful I think Alberta was, but I think the rest of Canada, too. I mean, as we were staring down a summer, that was not, as I said, going to look much different than the last. As much as I heard some epidemiologist saying what a risk this was. And I’m somebody who’s been very prudent with everything throughout this pandemic, I wanted to believe it could work, you know, and I think there was a lot of that from everybody. And so when did it start to come crashing down is maybe the wrong word. But when did it start to become clear, like, here we go?

Jason Case count started rising in late July, so a couple of weeks after the Stampede ended. Normally, these interactions take about maybe two weeks to percolate into case counts and then longer to percolate into hospitalizations. And as counts are starting to rise in late July, Dr. Deena Hinshaw came up for a Press conference once again, and we all expected her to say, Well, we’re going to be prudent and cautious and put in more restrictions, maybe pull back some of our plans. Alberta government did the opposite. Kenney’s government trotted out Deena Hinshaw to say that we’re going to start looking at this as an endemic. We’re going to stop contract tracing in a few weeks, we’re going to stop requiring people to isolate if they have COVID, we’ll just make it a recommendation. And a few weeks after that, we’re going to abandon routine testing for symptomatic people altogether. Covid testing will be a very small thing for diagnostic purposes in some cases, which sounded really, really reckless. And that this government was really aggressively moving into the post pandemic area, even as things were rising.

In August hospitals started filling up again after getting to very comfortable lows. ICUs had barely any COVID patients. Hospitals were doing much better, much like they were after other waves. It started rising in August and Jason Kenney was pretty absent from the fray. They did bring out doctor Hinshaw to say, actually, you still have to isolate. We’re going to delay our plan to move into the full post-pandemic period. And then a lot of silence, a lot of really uncomfortable silence as Jason Kenney went on vacation to Europe in late August and his government went into the sort of caretaker mode that a federal government goes into when there’s a federal election, except Alberta wasn’t in an election, they were just trying to lay low so as to not cause the federal Conservatives any bother.

Jordan So during the federal election, and I guess during Kenney’s vacation, what happened to the COVID situation in Alberta? I think the rest of Canada saw cases rising, started getting worried, were told hospitals were lagging indicators. Did anybody expect it to get this bad? And how bad is it?

Jason We have the most hospitalizations and the most critical care ICU pressures with COVID since this pandemic began. Alberta had it worse than any other province, just about in the second wave, and then again in the third wave. And now we are even worse than that at a time when a lot of provinces are not doing so bad or not facing this full brunt of the fourth wave. And that’s largely, of course, because we gave the virus so many opportunities to spread and we have fewer vaccinated people than any other province. There’s not a huge gap, but it’s enough of a gap that it’s clearly mattering here. And we have this culture that can help create or help support for a while, that made people think that the pandemic was over. He wasn’t going to impose any limitations on vaccine passports or any inducements. He offered a lottery, and then he ham-handedly offered $100 to every vaccine hold out to get their shots, which basically said, you guys who are holdouts who didn’t do the right thing, get money and those who did the right thing, well, you already had a vaccine for free. Things just got really bad. Jason Kenney finally came back from vacation and then they finally acted.

Jordan What did he do when he finally came back?

Jason This is when he announced this $100 bonus, they reimposed the mask mandate, which is good because people like myself and a lot of others were still wearing masks and grocery stores and went inside. But the mask usage really, really dropped because it was all voluntary and nobody was mandating it. So at least we were masked, but they didn’t put in other restrictions. They were reluctant to put in this sort of vaccine passport for most of this month that every other province was enacting, especially including those who were not having any massive problems with the fourth wave. He thought this was enough. He is facing a lot of pressure from a lot of rural MLAs in his United Conservative base who really ideologically and culturally oppose the requirements to close businesses to wear masks indoors that the government is going to tell me whether I should get vaccinated or not. There’s this real seam in his base, even though a large majority of the province supports more restrictions, wants tougher action, supports vaccine passports. That’s not the base that he lives with. And at the same time that he is supposed to be working his butt off to protect public health in Alberta, he is really working his butt off to keep his United Conservative base together and keep his caucus happy.

Jordan I’m going to ask you about that in just a second because I understand that this is a very fluid situation with the UCP and Kenney’s leadership in Alberta. But just first, one of the things I think has shocked the rest of Canada is hearing from some doctors in Alberta who are saying things like make sure you wear your seatbelt, don’t go biking off road, don’t do anything that could possibly land you in the hospital for any reason, because there’s no guarantee you can get care. What do we know about what the triage situation is in hospitals right now?

Jason Alberta, at this point, has not exercised this triage protocol as far as I know. That may come, but right now they are really, really worried about how close our hospital system is to the tipping point. We are operating at well past 150% of our normal ICU capacity right now, and that’s largely due to COVID. They’ve been able to expand our ICU capacity by offering surge capacity. They’ve canceled thousands of surgeries across the province. And not only is there that human suffering with COVID with many cases of vaccinated and in some cases unvaccinated people in the hospital or critical care or dying. But there’s also all these people who have needed cancer surgery, hernia surgery, pediatric surgery who are having to wait and suffer longer because our hospitals need the capacity.

We have ICUs being set up in places that ICUs are not normally set up, like in operating rooms because we just need that space. I’m not sure how much longer we last before we start bringing in field hospitals. Already, the province has put out an SOS to other provinces asking for staff and some provinces to bring in staff and ICU space. A colleague from City TV Courtney Theriault put forward something that really crushed me. As terrifying as it is to be isolated in a hospital room suffering from COVID. Imagine doing so a couple of time zones away from your house.

Jordan Man. So what happens now? First, I guess in terms of how long before we see the curve begin to turn or flatten. But then second, what happens to Jason Kenney? I understand he’s shuffling his cabinet. There are questions that he might not be long for the leadership. What is the evolving political situation in Alberta right now?

Jason The reason I kept infusing so many of my answers with politics is because politics underpins everything that Jason Kenney does. Public health has long seemed a supplementary consideration. But politics seems to be over arching and underpinning everything. If I can use both those over and under metaphors at the same time. In terms of the wave, though, you hope that with Jason Kenney last Wednesday finally bringing in a type of vaccine passport that began to be implemented in restaurants and indoor spaces on Monday, September 20, that that’s going to make a difference and some other restrictions on retail spaces and indoor gatherings, social gatherings, you hope that makes a difference.

Things won’t make a difference right away, So we’re still going to see cases rise for a little bit, at least. And because hospitalizations are likely indicators and as are deaths, we’re still going to see those go up. This was far too late to really keep us away from these dangerous tipping points. So I don’t know when we get to that if it’s next week or this week or who knows? Hopefully we don’t get there. But we’re on a dangerous track because Kenney waited so late to act with any serious capacity.

Jordan Is he going to pay for that with his job? You know, we’ve seen this cabinet shuffle and he appears to have thrown his health Minister under the bus. I know I’m not going to get you to speak to individual cabinet shuffles because that’s not what we’re here for, but are his days numbered as leader of the UCP?

Jason It seems overwhelmingly like he’s toast, that he is not long for this job. Everybody is angry with him. The rurals who didn’t want public health measures have been angry with him. We’re hearing increasing frustrations from those who are urban MLAS and people in Calgary and Edmonton who are furious that he’s waited so long to protect public health and both those factions of the United Conservative Party, which he cobbled together from the old Progressive Conservatives and Wild Rose parties, both sides are really angry at him because he’s such a bad manager and he’s not given anybody any confidence in his leadership in how he handles things like apologies or announcements or delays or decisions, that he waffles, that he’s confident and then he has to backtrack. And a lot of them are just worried that the NDP have been leading in the polls for about a year now and there seems to be no way out of this unless they turf him. There are movements we’ve been hearing about, MLAs who want him out. There was a party executive in the UCP who’s been vocal about him resigning, constituency associations want him out. I don’t understand how somebody faces these many pressures and things that a cabinet shuffle on its own is going to solve it.

Jordan Is this what a cabinet shuffle and the COVID announcement that he made is about? Buying him some more time?

Jason It would seem so. This is desperation mode. There are people who don’t want to be in his cabinet anymore. There are people who don’t want to be with him anymore. People don’t want to be around him anymore. And he’s finding himself with very few loyalists left. So he’s trying something.

He thought he could outsmart Covid. He’s thinking he can outsmart the many people inside his own party who hate him. Like it was with COVID, It’s a high leap. I guess it could work theoretically, but a lot of things have failed for him that he thought were great ideas in theory before.

Jordan Jason, thank you for this. I’d say that I feel for the guy, but I mostly feel for everybody in Alberta that has to live with this now.

Jason We have been living with the consequences of his political decisions for too long it seems.

Jordan Thanks again.

Jason Cheers.

Jordan Jason Markusoff of Maclean’s . That was The Big Story. For more head to thebigstorypodcast.ca, find us on Twitter at @TheBigStoryFPN. Email us at thebigstorypodcast@rci. rogers.com [click here!]. And please subscribe, follow, rate, review, like, whatever you can in any podcast player that you choose.

Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings, we’ll talk tomorrow. Back to top of page