Inside Toronto’s apathetic election

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Jordan Heath-Rawlings The largest city in this country, the fourth largest city in North America, is having an election. Now, if you’re not in Toronto, you may not not have heard. But if you are in Toronto, the polls show you probably don’t care. Some people don’t want to hear about it. They’re tired of the pictures that politicians are bringing them. There’s a distance between people in their day to day lives and the places where you make decisions, like the city council table. It doesn’t matter who gets in. For my legacy to say nothing changes. For me, I think it’s really incumbent upon us to get out of Butts and vote. Currently, a couple of weeks before the vote, there are almost no credible challengers to Mayor John Tory. His main rival is pulling miles behind him. The past couple of years have forced this city to face say it with me now unprecedented challenges. But even the possibility of reshaping Toronto after a once in a century pandemic doesn’t seem to hold much allure to voters. There are no shortage of issues facing the city, from housing to public health, to inequality, to simple services like garbage collection or swimming lessons. Tory’s opponents, and even reporting in the media, has painted a picture of a city in decline. And look, a simple walk around Toronto’s downtown core will offer any observer plenty of examples of that. So why is the mayoral race all but over already? Why is expected voter turnout low and shrinking? Why do so few people engage with municipal politics, not just in Toronto, but across this country? Even when they’ll be feeling the impact of this election more directly than any other, they get to cast a ballot in. What happens when a city’s election stops mattering to all but a few people in it. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. This is The Big Story. David Rider is the City Hall bureau chief for the Toronto Star. He has covered plenty of municipal elections. Hello, David.

David Rider Hi there.

Jordan David, Toronto is choosing potentially a new mayor this month. It’s a big municipal election. The race for mayor must be super close, right?

David Rider You would think so. John Tory has been mayor for eight years. Often at this time, we’d see sort of time for a change or let’s look at somebody new. We have a total of 31 people, including John Tory, running, but all indications are that it’s not a close race at all. John Tory doesn’t have a major challenger. He has some challengers were notable, but it seems like barring meteor strike or something, that John Tory will probably remain there for a while yet. I’m not going to get you to go through all 31 candidates, but you mentioned there are a couple of notable ones.

Jordan If this election was closer, who would be the main challengers?

David Rider Well, a guy named Gil Penalosa is running sort of the biggest campaign against John Tory has the most endorsements and the most policy. Having said that, it’s still a shadow of what we would often see from a big name challenger. So Gil is well known. He’s an urban kind of life advocate, somebody who is an expert in cities and especially in cities helping fight climate change. He’s extremely well known in those circles and he speaks, he does ted talks and speaks to governments in different parts of the world, but he’s not really well known in Toronto. I think if you stopped the average person on Yonge Street or somewhere in the suburbs and said guilty Penalosa, they would shrug. They’d have no idea. So he’s running as a progressive. But part of the unusual thing about the selection is John Tory is kind of I think most people would consider him a center right kind of mayor that you would think you would be a challenger either from more on the right. Somebody like Doug Ford we had run in the past. Or certainly from the left. We’ve had Olivia Chow. Another kind of big name people from the NDP establishment running. But this time none of them stepped forward to really take a run at Tory.

Jordan Why hasn’t anyone stepped forward? This is the biggest city in Canada. This is a huge job. Where is the competitiveness to take it over?

David Rider It’s a great question. I don’t think we have a definitive answer. I think the best answer I can come up with is that during this past term, this was John Tory’s second term. The pandemic overshadowed everything and a lot of the normal kind of arguments we would have over making Toronto a better city or a more livable city. A more economically sustainable city kind of went out the window because most of the city council. Including John Torres normal opponents. Kind of pulled together and said. We got to work together to try and get as many people vaccinated and figure out whether we need a mass policy and how to kind of in this plague. So I think there’s that that people were just like it was a bit of a weird kind of term, so what are we going to fight them on? And I think there also is just a bit of pandemic exhaustion. I think we’ve seen it on the part of we have fewer than normal candidates overall in this race. There’s a bit of a low energy feeling to the election, and I think that may be spilled over to some of the candidates. For people who might have it’s a pretty exhausting thing to try and take on generally popular mayor and just nobody seemed to have the energy to do it.

Jordan We’re going to talk about Toronto for the next few minutes here, but for those listening not from Toronto, stick around because there’s a bigger conversation, I think, to be had here about municipal politics and the lack of, I guess, competitiveness in Canada generally. But first, David, I’m not asking you to be partisan or to criticize or endorse Tory here, obviously, but I want to know, as someone who lives in the city, what did John Tory run on last time? What were his major promises, and how much of that has he delivered on? Obviously, the Pandemic derailed some things, but if somebody was really pushing him here and there was a fierce debate, what would Tory be pointing to as his signature achievements from this term?

David Rider Sure. So in 2018, as he did in the previous election, the first election he went, he promised to keep property taxes low at or below the rate of inflation, which back then was running kind of two to 3%. So very low, almost minuscule kind of tax increase. He did deliver on that. Having said that, the Pandemic has blown a giant hole in our finances, and Toronto was looking. I think we’re on track. We need like an $850,000,000 bailout because we spent so much money on so many things to help fight the Pandemic, and we lost so much revenue from things like our transit system. So he can claim a lot of people are saying that’s not really a badge of honour, given the state of the city in lots of ways, but he can claim that property taxes so far have remained low. Another kind of thrust of his campaign was housing, which is recognized as a huge issue in Toronto. He promised the Housing Now program, which is basically using it’s a variation of another program, but it’s using under-utilized city land things that might have been a parking lot or a city building that was no longer needed, and getting developers to build housing on it with sort of lots of incentives for the developer. But they had to have a certain amount of number of units being affordable of various kinds of low income housing. That has happened. There are lots of projects proved or under way at various stages. However, critics can point out that none of the units have actually opened, that it’s kind of like still in the works, and we haven’t completely seen the proof in that pudding. The other main thing is that I think that where he’s vulnerable is in the first election, he promised Smart Track, which was going to be a kind of a new transit line using existing surface rail lines that were not being used very much, sounded very appealing, helped get him elected. But Smart Track and so in 2018, he said, I’ll continue work with Smart Track. The fact that Smart Track really only exists as a concept anymore. The Ontario government unveiled its own transit expansion policy, including Fort Toronto, and Smart Track, which I think a lot of experts would say was made more sense as a branding exercise than an actual transit policy. Smart Track is really being subsumed into the Ontario government plan. The Ontario line and other lines really it’s hard to point a finger and say, smart track is here or there. It barely exists, if at all. But then, as I said, the pandemic kind of took over. And that really was the story of his second term of 2018 to 2022.

Jordan Now, just to be transparent here, I live in East End Toronto, and the beaches are definitely what suburban voters would refer to as a downtown Toronto liberal. But to your point, as I see us moving on from the immediate danger, at least of the pandemic, there’s been a lot of criticism of just the state of the city. We see a ton of photos of garbage cans or park bathrooms still being locked years into this pandemic. There’s a lot of progressive criticism. But to your point, aside from Panelosa, maybe not a lot of progressives actively running against John Tory or trying to make it better. Why is that happening?

David Rider Well, yeah, I think basically Tory has found a kind of centrist political groove that seems like he angers a lot of progressives, especially if you look at Twitter, it’s not hard to see. You would think he’s the most unpopular mayor in the history of Toronto. But of course, most voters don’t spend much time on Twitter, so he hasn’t angered people too much, say, on the renter’s side, the lower income side, or the homeowners. He might have done things of the property owners in the various especially in the suburban Toronto. And he also, when he speaks like I kind of say it’s kind of like a fog, sometimes we’ll start asking him a question, fairly pointed question in a news conference, and he talks and talks and kind of takes this alleyway and alleyway, and by the end, sometimes we’ve forgotten what the question was. So he’s got that, which is actually a valuable political skill. But there is a drumbeat that I think is kind of the main opposition to him this time, and guilt panelosa is pushing it. I don’t think it’s going to help him win, but I think Tory is feeling it. And the drumbeat from the progressive side of the city is that Toronto is a city in decline. Right. And it’s largely due to John Torres insistence that property taxes in the past be kept at or below the rate of inflation. So people point to parks where washrooms remain locked for no apparent reason. That where water fountains don’t work. We’ve had issues with haphazard snow clearing in some cases, where people were kind of snowed in for days on their own street in Toronto, recreation programs canceled for lack of staff and more. This has become a main talking point in the election. I will say a self promotion, partly because the Toronto Star has highlighted what we call the price of long term austerity in the city. Tory is sort of combating it and saying, no, I’m doing this and I’m doing that. But he is sticking to a pledge not to keep property taxes at or below inflation, but actually say for sure in 2023, if he’s reelected, property tax increase will be below the rate of inflation, because inflation is high right now is 7% or something like that. And just for context, toronto has lower property taxes than all the municipalities like Mississauga and Brenton and Oshawa, all of them around Toronto, taxpayers have the best bargain going.

Jordan You mentioned that it might not help unseat him because there’s no real realistic challenger, but you also said that Tory has been hearing that criticism and been feeling it. What has he promised to do about those day to day austerity measures, as you guys call it, that are impacting the quality of life in the city? Has he addressed that with any kind of concrete plan?

David Rider He really hasn’t. I mean, he has lots of policy and basically he is just relying on saying he’s going to ensure there’s enough investment in the city while making sure it doesn’t become unaffordable and we don’t tax people out of their homes. So he got kind of widely mocked over the long weekend because he released a parks policy that was saying he was reaffirming his commitment to the city park. And he’s going to do he can talk with some justification about expanding. We have the Bent Way, which is a park kind of underneath an elevated highway that’s considered quite innovative. But as far as the general state of things, he hasn’t really addressed that yet in a really fulsome way.

Jordan Last question about Toronto. If the mayor’s race is a foregone conclusion, you’re watching everything else that happens at City Hall. What should Toronto’s be paying attention to in this election?

David Rider Yeah, well, we’re blessed this time with a lot of interesting City Council races. A record number of councillors decided to step away from City Hall. We have seven open races, most of them in downtown, but a couple in the suburbs, and then among the ones where they are incumbent trying to get elected. We also have some interesting races. So one with an open race, and our polling showed is probably the tightest race in the city, is in the north central Toronto, in the area called Willowdale, where you have a gentleman named Marcus O’Brien Fair, who was the executive assistant to the outgoing councillor. He wants to continue the policies with some tweaking of his former boss. There’s a woman named Lily Cheng who is really challenging him. And then there’s a man named Daniel Lee who is kind of running from the political right. Big issue. There is housing, and especially a supportive housing project, which is for three story building that she wants to build that were people for coming right out of homelessness. Sort of the next step for the next perch for those people who were who were at the very bottom. Marcus O’brien Fehr is saying he supports it. Lily Chang is saying that she has a lot of concerns about impacts on the neighborhood. And then Daniel is saying it just shouldn’t be there at all. So that’s become a big flashpoint. Typical lake shore. We’ve got a rematch of Mark Grimes, who is an incumbent with some political baggage, and he’s up against Amber Morley, who’s a young progressive kind of firecracker. She came very close last time, and she’s trying again. Once again, Mark Grimes income had got John Torres endorsement, so that could help him prevail again. And then one where we know we’re going to get changed is Spadina Ford York, where Joe Cressy was the public very high profile chair of Public Health. He stepped away and has already left. And Ausma Malik, our polling says she appears to be on track to find her way to council.

David Rider As somebody who’s covered many municipal elections and has made this a beat and has done it over quite a while now, do these elections get enough attention? And I’m speaking generally here, not just for Toronto compared to the provincial and federal races and why or why not?

David Rider So they don’t. And I think anybody who gets involved in city issues, either as a journalist, or works for a city, or studies in the university, would say that basically we pay way more attention to federal and provincial races than we do to city council. And that’s reflected in, certainly, voter turnout. And I think the reason we should pay more attention is that municipal races touch their lives way more often and way more kind of impactful way than federal or provincial policy. I mean, how much property tax you pay, whether your garbage gets collected, whether you have park where the washroom will be open when you need somewhere to change your toddler, all those kinds of things affect you every single day, whereas a lot of provincial and federal policy just doesn’t in the same way. So why it doesn’t is a trick, and there’s not a great answer. I would say a big part of it is, and I’m not advocating for political parties at the municipal level, but I honestly think it’s just easier for voters to kind of get their head around, this is what the Conservatives are like. And I know I don’t really know the local candidate, but if he’s a Conservative, I can guess what he’s about, or the NDP, or the Liberal or the Greens. With the municipal, they’re handed a list of names. And really, except if it’s not a celebrity or potentially the incumbents, who has been their city councillor maybe for years or even decades, they probably have almost no idea who this person is. So we have the Toronto Star and the other media in Toronto do everything we can sort of shine a light on these people. But I think it does make it harder for people to get interested when isn’t the same kind of party course race that gets so much attention with the provincial and federal levels.

Jordan What do you wish that those voters understood better before going to the polls? That would perhaps make for I don’t know if it would make for more competitive elections, but at least would make for elections that concentrated on, as you just mentioned, the things that touch people’s lives every day.

David Rider I think people should just realize that, I know it can seem like such a big task to figure out who should be mayor or who should be city councillor. But if you sit down and do. I’d say half an hour or an hour of what can be kind of enjoyable reading. Because you’re reading about what’s happening with you and your neighbours and your friends in your city. And just you can read through their platforms. Which. Admittedly. Is hard to find. But the Toronto Star website or our many competitors have compiled lots of stories to help people compare. We have a compass where people can put in what they think about a bunch of issues, and it will suggest these are the candidates who seem most in line with you, but here are the others. If you want to look, it’s an investment, but it’s an investment that will pay off. Because Toronto has been a successful city. We’ve become the fourth biggest city in North America, but it’s way more successful for some people than it is for others. There’s, like a very strong acknowledgment that a lot of people have been left behind. There’s lower income people, racialized people, people in different parts of the city that don’t get the same services or the same success or the same benefit. And if you don’t spend a little bit of time and invest a little bit of your attention into it, there could be really negative consequences. And if the city doesn’t do well overall, even if you’re in a good place, eventually that’s going to impact your life.

Jordan This is my last question, but what happens I mean, you’ve covered these races. You’ve also covered the aftermath of them. What happens when we have an election like the one that Toronto appears to be on course for, with an easy frontrunner for mayor and what at least so far looks to be like low voter turnout? What happens to the city in the months and years after that?

David Rider Well, I guess it depends on who wins and how seriously they take their mandate. I mean, I think the big danger is if you have essentially a low energy, kind of disaffected voter election, the danger is that the politicians win and kind of think they can do whatever they want because the people didn’t care before, so they’re going to continue not caring. I mean, I would say that’s a dangerous political view to take, but I think it could be an inevitable consequence if somebody was going to kind of say to take voters for granted and say, well, people won’t rise up, I would point to them, to the Rob Ford experience in Toronto 2010. 2014 he was elected with a big support and a big mandate. And then he immediately started saying, well, we’re going to close libraries and we’re going to remake the waterfront. We’re going to do all these things that weren’t part of his campaign. And Toronto very quickly rose up. And what might have seemed like apathy or acceptance suddenly was like a very strong revolt. We’re not going to have those things. We’re not going to have a casino in our downtown. And so I’d say to any politicians, be careful because people might seem a little bit tired now. And I think a lot of us are tired after what was a kind of a bizarre two years. But, you know, the city didn’t get to be as good as it has been because people were apathetic. And I I think think and hope people will get more engaged.

Jordan David, thank you so much for this. And as a Torontonian, thank you and your colleagues at the Star for covering this municipal election.

David Rider Appreciate it, anytime.

Jordan David Rider, city hall bureau chief for the Toronto Star. If you do live in Toronto, please do learn a little bit about the candidates just so you won’t feel bad later when things suck. That was the big story. For more from us, you can head to The Bigstorypodcast CA. If you want to tell us that we’re way too Toronto centric, you can hit us up on Twitter at The Big Story FPN. I would point out to you, though, that we did an episode about Saskatchewan’s booming economy just last week. You can talk to us anytime via email. Hello at thebigstorypodcast CA. You can call us and leave a message by calling 416-935-5935. You can find this podcast in any podcast player you like. Please do rate and review, and if you want it on your smart speaker, just ask for it by saying, hey, smart speaker, play the Big Story podcast. Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. We’ll talk tomorrow.