Is Toronto’s transit system entering a death spiral?

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Jordan Heath Rawlings When you’re trying to figure out what’s really going on in a city, you need to ignore anecdotes and incidents. You need to look at the big picture, at the numbers, because bad things happen in big cities every day. There are always people who are struggling or people who get hurt or stories of tragedy and violence. That’s just part of life among millions of people. So simply going by what you hear or what you feel in your gut or see on TV isn’t the answer. You also need to look at the data. However, since Friday, there have been four attacks, two robberies, and two assaults. It was a violent weekend on the TTC, with more attacks than any weekend so far this year. Uniformed police officers patrolling subways, streetcars, and buses in an effort to curb the rise in disturbing and violent incidents on transit. In recent days, there has been yet another attack on the TTC. Police say a person was stabbed on a TTC bus on Bloor Street West just under an hour ago. What happens when the data backs up? All the awful, scary stuff that everyone was already feeling and seeing and talking about, when it’s obvious to both the eye and the numbers that something has gone very wrong, but you still don’t know exactly why. This is the tough spot Toronto finds itself in right now. Its major transit system, the TTC, feels really unsafe, and the numbers tell us it’s rapidly heading that way. There are a handful of easy solutions to this problem that probably won’t work, but at least they make it seem like something is being done. Other cities have tried this. Toronto will too. But the solutions that might actually help go well beyond the transit system and speak to a city where people are at their breaking point. Services are stretched too thin to help them, and the people in charge seem set on treating the symptoms and not the underlying disease. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. This is The Big Story. Lex Harvey is the transportation reporter at the Toronto Star. Hi, Lex.

Lex Harvey Hi, how are you?

Jordan I’m doing well. It must be an interesting time to cover the city’s transportation system.

Lex Harvey Yeah, absolutely. It’s been a bit of a crazy past couple of weeks, I think within the context of a bit of a worrying year on transit, in the context of safety at least.

Jordan And I want to try to get into, as we discuss this, kind of the difference between the actual facts and numbers and the vibes here, because we’re going to discuss both of them. But just for those who don’t use the TTC regularly or, of course, for the people listening who are outside of Toronto, can you kind of describe the feeling that Torontonians have towards their transit these days? Like, how do the riders feel? What are they worried about?

Lex Harvey Well, obviously, it does depend on who you ask. And I have spoken to people who are kind of they maybe take transit every day and they don’t feel like there’s been a huge change, at least in their own commute. I think we have more than a million people who take the TTC every day. So obviously for the vast majority of people, their journeys are going to be completely fine. But in the past couple of weeks, we’ve just seen a really alarming state of random, violent attacks on the transit system. So like yesterday, for example, I woke up and saw news that there was a fight at Union Station in the morning in which one person had a knife. Over the weekend, there were two robberies and two assaults. Despite last week police and the city announcing some new measures to try to tackle this, which we can get into, I’m sure. And then last week, two people were stabbed. Thankfully, both are recovering and are okay. But as we know, in December 1 woman was fatally stabbed. So I think that was particularly alarming in the context of what happened before. Employees have been swarmed by groups of teenagers. One was shot out with a BB gun. So it’s this really awful mix of basically just really scary things that are happening on the TTC and kind of feels like almost every day we hear news of something else that’s gone wrong.

Jordan One of the things you mentioned there was that these attacks are random. How common is that? And is that one of the reasons that this is attracting so much attention?

Lex Harvey I mean, I think there’s always going to be fights and disagreements and assaults in a city of this size, but the random things seem scary. Yeah, the randomness is really scary. I do want to preface this by saying that I’m not sure we know enough about each individual tack to necessarily draw the kind of overarching conclusions that we might want to. But in many of the cases, police have said that the suspect and the victim did not know each other. Like that stabbing last week. I’m sure you heard on the Speedy Streetcar, just in the middle of the day, a young woman was stabbed and the suspect and the victim in that case were not known to each other. Same with the woman who was fatally stabbed in December. And so I think that aspect of it is really scary for people because it feels like when you hear these stories, you’re like, oh, I take that streetcar and that could have been me. I’m not too far off from the demographic of the woman who was stabbed last week. That streetcar, just from a personal perspective, is really close to where I live and really close to where I grew up. And so it did have a sense of like, oh, whoa, that could kind of be any of us. So I think the randomness does play in to the vibes you were mentioning earlier.

Jordan So let’s talk about the actual facts then, because obviously these kind of incidents, especially being random, especially being pretty high profile, spark a lot of attention. But what do we know about the actual numbers of TTC crime? I don’t know, in the past year or whatever numbers you have, like, is it actually on the rise? Can we quantify it?

Lex Harvey So, according to the TTC’s own data, it is on the rise. So they track the number of offenses against customers and against employees each month. And these are defined as the most serious incidents, ones that are reported to police, ones where often the person might get charged. So we’re talking about assault, sexual assault, robbery, theft, those kinds of things. So in 2019, the TTC reported 666. That went up in 2020 to 735. And then last year, we don’t have the data yet for December, but between January and November, there were 923 offenses against customers. Okay, so compared to what I said, in 2019, we had 666. But really important to keep in mind here is that we’re dealing with like, a fraction of the riders, right? So I think we ended the year last year with around 68% of the weekday riders that we saw before the pandemic.

Jordan So we’re seeing more of these violent incidents despite having fewer people actually on the system. What does the TTC itself have to say about that increase? Do they offer any reasons for it or any explanation for why it might be happening?

Lex Harvey Well, what the TTC says, which I think is fair, is that public transit is really a microcosm of the city that it serves. I don’t think that much of this is unique to the TDC, other than the fact that public transit is a pretty widely accessible public space, especially in the colder months. It’s a venue where people might go to stay warm. And so I think from that perspective, it maybe makes it a venue where some of these violent attacks might play out. But I think at the core of it is the city’s issues, and that we’re dealing with a situation where a lot of people are really struggling, and many of these issues far predate the pandemic. But during that time, we saw a lot of social issues exacerbated. So people who are struggling to find housing, and as we know, there’s an affordable housing crisis in the city. Our shelter system is also hugely overburdened. At the same time, people are struggling to afford basic necessities. We also have what many would call a two tier mental health system, where there’s a lot of people who can’t find the support that they need. So I think it really is just a combination of all of these factors. But that said, we don’t totally know enough. I think that’s just people’s best guess. When you talk to people who can speak to the increasing numbers of vulnerable people in this city or to your point, people struggling with mental health or any number of the things like that, what do they say about sort of making that link between vulnerable people who need help and the fact that violent incidents are up because there are people who need help on the subway system. Yeah, I am glad you asked that. I think we have to be really careful before making any such a link. What I have heard from people who are public health experts or work maybe advocates and other people in those spaces is that there’s not like a direct line between, for example, mental illness and violence or any of these. You can’t connect any of these one things with violence. But I think when you have a confluence of factors going on here and you have someone who is really struggling, is unable to get the support they need, is unable to have a safe place where they can live, meanwhile there’s all of these other things going on, they can’t afford basic goods, all of that. That is when you see the propensity for violence or the propensity for someone to be in crisis start to rise. So I think it is important to look at things holistically, but at the same time, I don’t think we should be drawing the narrative that it’s just vulnerable people or people who are homeless who are perpetrators of the violence. We don’t have any data that suggests that’s the case. I think people who are sheltering on the TCC because they have nowhere else to go are just as likely to be victims of these types of attacks. We saw that awful incident just last month where the homeless man was swarmed and stabbed and died as a result of it. So I guess all of this is to say is that we just have to be really careful to pretend like we have one answer for these things when I really don’t think that we do.

Jordan That’s totally fair. And let’s talk about what answers the TTC might have, if any, what kinds of solutions have been put forward. You mentioned there were a couple of measures taken last week what’s the city and the TTC going to do about this?

Lex Harvey So the most recent measures last week the police said that they were going to ask 80 officers to start working overtime shifts to have more police patrolling the system. The TTC also said that it was going to redeploy some of its own operational stuff. So people who might be working in offices to be on the system wear high visibility vests and just be kind of a source of support for people. And then the city announced this week that it was going to add 50 additional security guards and 20 community safety ambassadors, which they described as people who can engage with people who might be vulnerable or experiencing homelessness and help them find support. And then all of this comes after our budget announcement that we saw a couple of weeks ago where the city proposed hiring 25 new special constables. So those are kind of the designated officers who patrol the CDC as well as filling 25 vacant positions. But that is something that still has to go by city council in a couple of weeks.

Jordan Do we know anything about if transit cops or police officers working overtime have any actual impact on the overall system? Because I know that this is purely anecdotal from my point of view as an occasional rider, I see them so rarely and you would probably need one at every subway station and every bus to really keep a handle on things. And even then they can only react when something happens. I’m curious if we even know if this will make a difference.

Lex Harvey I don’t think that we really know yet. We have 80 officers now, which as I mentioned, we have more than a million people who ride the system every day. We have almost 80 subway stations. Exactly. So those people are going to be stretched pretty thin. But before that, in terms of the special constables whose job is to patrol the TDC, I was told that they typically have a maximum of twelve on shift at any given time and they’re trying to increase that. That is obviously a big change going from twelve to 80. But in the context of more than a million, it’s still fairly little. I mean, one source of data that we do have comes from New York City, which has seen also a really startling rise in crime on its subway system. And the mayor there has deployed thousands of additional police patrols in the past year and they actually saw violence rise by 30%. Okay, so it does not seem to be working for them. I think remains to be seen whether it’s going to solve the issue here.

Jordan When you talk to people who do public outreach or who work with vulnerable people or public health, as you mentioned, what do they say might help?

Lex Harvey First of all, getting ahead of the spate of violence, but also just to help people who probably should have more options than to sleep on the TTC and -20, degree weather. Yeah, so I think they feel very strongly that this is not an issue that we can police away because there are much larger root causes driving it. And that solution doesn’t really do much to address those root causes. One thing I have heard is the suggestion that we could hire people who are more specialized, trained in crisis outreach and mental health supports and things like that, who can patrol the system and potentially assist people who might be experiencing moments in crisis and vulnerable people. As we know, police do have disproportionately worse outcomes with racialized Torontonians, black and indigenous people in particular. And so not all riders are going to feel safe with more police on the system. I think that’s something to consider here. We had a group of progressive counselors write a letter to Mayor John Tory the other day asking for more details on this plan, particularly in regards to the police. They wanted a comparison.

Jordan How much would it cost to hire?

Lex Harvey For example, 80 additional TTC operational staff and 80 mental health workers versus these 80 police officers who are going to be working overtime shifts, so costing more.

Jordan What about the comparison of the situation on the TTC with just the situation in the rest of the city? You touched on this a little bit, but I also think we talk about vulnerable people who are struggling. Everybody’s kind of at the end of their rope now, right? It’s been two and a half years of a pandemic, almost three years of a pandemic, and everybody’s running out of money and running out of patience. And it feels like this whole thing is kind of a powder keg right now. And do we know if, in general, the TTC is just a reflection of the mood of the city and the populace?

Lex Harvey I think it definitely is to an extent. Crime in Toronto has risen 3% from 2019. Homicides are down, but assaults, robberies, sexual violations have all risen.

Jordan So these are maybe similar to the types of attacks you might be seeing more frequently on the TCC. Right?

Lex Harvey I think one thing that’s important to remember as well with the TTC is that there are just fewer people on the system. In general, as the system has become more technically advanced, it’s required fewer TDC staff to be present. So, for example, we have more presto machines instead of people who collect fares, and then we also just have still a lot fewer riders than we did before the pandemic. And so I think that also creates this kind of public space where you just have less eyes. And then we also saw recently with the proposed budget announcement that because of the Lagging ridership, the TTC is proposing cutting service and hiking fares by a further 10%. So if that’s passed with the rest of the city’s budget in a couple of weeks, I think if you ask at least transportation experts, that might even make fewer people come on the system if it’s less reliable or less frequent. This is kind of where I want to get back to the vibes around the TTC, because you mentioned increased fares and less service. I’ve already spoken to several people who just don’t want to take it. And in large part it’s because they hear all this stuff and whether or not we can quantify exactly what the rise in violence is or why it’s happening, they’re hearing these scary stories and they’re not getting on the TTC. And if that continues and ridership drops further and there’s less service, it seems like this could have a very big impact on the system as a whole if things keep spiraling like this. Yeah, the vibes are important here. I mean, I think as much as it’s obviously horrendous what’s been going on and awful for these people who’ve been targeted in their families and frankly, unacceptable for the vast majority of people, the TTC is safe. But if people are feeling that it’s not safe, that’s also a really powerful thing. So I think there’s like a perception issue here as well. Because if people are choosing to travel through different modes and I have heard from riders who are kind of saying, I don’t know, like, this feels like just a bigger risk than it’s worth. Maybe I’m going to call an Uber. Or maybe I’m going to walk. Then that’s fewer people on the system at a time when we desperately need more people on the system to deal with this revenue issue and to hopefully increase service. You mentioned a spiral, and that’s something that we hear a lot in the transit space. And there’s this term called a transit death spiral. Sounds bad, it sounds very doomsday. But basically the idea is that when you cut service, fewer riders will come because the system is less reliable, it’s less frequent, and then as a result, you have less money coming in, so then you have to cut service again.

Jordan So it’s like this downward cycle that ultimately is just bad for public transit. What can people do? And I don’t know if the TTC or the police have issued any guidance on this, but if somebody is feeling scared but they need to get to work or need to take the TTC for something else, do they have any advice on what they should do?

Lex Harvey I did ask this, and I didn’t feel like the advice was the most reassuring. One thing that TGC told me is when you’re waiting for the subway, they do have designated waiting areas which are equipped with cameras, and there’s like an intercom system if something happens that you can call directly to them. Right. They also mentioned when you’re waiting for a train, like staying as close to the wall as possible, there’s been a couple of really horrifying incidents where people have been pushed on the tracks. That advice sounds scarier than the actual threat. I know it’s one of those things where you’re like, I didn’t even think of that. And now I have another thing that I’m stressing about. I don’t know. I would say personally what I’m doing. I’m still writing the TCC, but I’m just staying a bit more aware, which is probably something that I should be doing across the city generally. But I think before this I might have been more likely to tune into a podcast or listen to music and zone out a little bit. And I am now very conscious of just kind of taking in my surroundings and not stressing myself out, but just being present.

Jordan I think in the situation that I’m in, what’s a possible first step? So we know that there’s going to be some more cops and that’s great. There’s really mixed opinions on whether that will have any impact. When you talk to the advocates, what do they say is something that we could do? Right now? There’s no silver bullet to solve this, but what’s a good step in the right direction?

Lex Harvey I mean, I think opening warming centers and making more shelter space would be a good step in the right direction. I was chatting with some people on the TDC yesterday who were sheltering there, and they said that one of their issues is they go to the shelter and there’s not enough space, and then they’re just told to call three one one and hope for more space. But they say, we don’t even have a phone. And so this week it’s getting really cold and where else can you really go if you need to stay warm? So I think expanding shelter space and providing people alternatives to the TTC would be a good start. Again, I think the issue of people sheltering in the TTC, while perhaps somehow connected to violence, I wouldn’t say that they’re the same issue. I think it’s kind of two different issues going on at once. Yeah. I think in terms of what we can do immediately, speaking from the perspective of some transit advocates I’ve spoken to, or public health experts, criminologists, they say that having some more mental health outreach workers on the system could be helpful and just having more TCC staff and generally eyes on the system would be helpful. But I don’t think that there is like, a really clear answer and maybe that’s what makes this problem so difficult. I think really the solution is tackling a bunch of these much larger issues that are driving problems not just here, but across the country.

Jordan It’s always good to know that the problem is even bigger than we thought. Lex, thank you so much for this and thanks for all your work. And I guess we’ll see what happens next.

Lex Harvey Yeah, thank you so much for taking the time to speak to me.

Jordan Lex Harvey covers transportation in Toronto for the Toronto Star. That was the big story. For more from us, you can head to the big storypodcast. CA. To say something to us, you can head to Twitter, find us at the bigstory FPN. You can also email us hello at The Bigstorypodcast CA. As always, we are looking for story ideas. This one was suggested by a couple of listeners, though, to be honest, most of our staff live in Toronto and everybody has these stories now. Everybody’s heard from someone who felt scared or knows somebody who was on the same route that something happened on, and that’s how the spiral starts. So if you have a story like that can feel free to tell us. As I mentioned, hello at The bigstory Podcast CA, or you can call us and leave a message. 416-935-5935 The Big stories in every podcast player. If you want it ad free, you can find it on Apple As, TBS. Plus, if you got a smart speaker, ask it to play the Big Story podcast. Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. We’ll talk tomorrow.