The many investigations of Donald J. Trump

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Jordan Heath-Rawlings It’s possible by the time you listen to this episode that former President Donald Trump will have been arrested in New York City. It is looking more likely, however, that he won’t be at least not yet judging by his social media posts. However, Trump seems to be expecting an arrest, which would. First for a former American president any day now, and the reaction from many who haven’t been paying close attention when the charges are revealed will likely be along the lines of, wait, he was arrested for that. I don’t mean that in a, I can’t believe that’s all they got sort of way, but because well, the potential New York case, Against Trump is just one of a handful of investigations that could end in an arrest and charges, and it is safe to say it’s not the one the average person would consider the most important considering the others involve classified documents and election tampering. So who exactly is investigating Donald J. Trump and for what? Where are these invest? In the process, and if they do result in charges, when might that happen? What happens if they all do? If and when Donald Trump is arrested, what happens next? I am Jordan Heath-Rawlings. This is the big story. Aaron Rupar is an independent journalist who covers US media policy and national politics. He is the author of the Subs Public Notice, and he is currently watching and waiting to see if Trump will be arrested. Hey, Aaron.

Aaron Rupar Hello.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings We’re speaking Tuesday morning, so there is a possibility that Donald Trump may be arrested before this podcast airs tomorrow, but uh, also maybe not. How’s that going?

Aaron Rupar Yeah, I think it’s trending towards not, and an important thing to keep in mind in this context is that the information that people have been processing and. The expectation that Trump will be arrested today, that has come from Trump himself. Uh, he posted over the weekend on truth social that he expected to be arrested today. Of course, he’s been furiously fundraising off of this. Um, it’s become kind of the predominant news story. So he has his own self-interested reasons for putting that out there, and the timeline that he puts out there doesn’t necessarily coincide with what the Manhattan DA is operating. And there is reporting today that the grand jury is still hearing testimony. So it sounds to me like nothing is imminent. Um, there was some reporting floating around this morning that, you know, based on law enforcement sources, that there’s an expectation that perhaps next week will be the time when Trump is indicted. Now, of course, we hear in the states have been saying this for years, it feels like, and literal, literally it has been years where we’ve all been waiting around for Trump to be indicted or arrested. Going back almost a decade now, and so it’s hard not to be cynical about it. But you know, some of this information we’ve had seeping out from the grand jury that of course Trump was invited to testify and that there’s been planning among law enforcement agencies for the possibility of protest if he’s arrested or indicted. And so, yeah, it does seem like a real thing, but I do think the expectation that it would, that it might happen today or when people are listening to this on Wednesday, I wouldn’t put too much stock into that. I think it could drag on longer than people think.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings And we’ll have to just see what happens and deal with, uh, whatever the followed is when it does. But the reason we wanted to talk to you today is we were discussing amongst ourselves, obviously the possibility of an indictment. And I think we realized that even our team who follow the news, uh, and US politics very closely have kind of lost track of just how many investigations are ongoing and where they’re at and who’s doing them and what could lead to what. Like how many investigations is Donald Trump facing currently?

Aaron Rupar Sure. And so. To take a step back on that, this Stormy Daniels situation that is the focus of the Manhattan DA’s investigation, the hush money payment that was made to her during the 2016 campaign. I feel like people have kind of forgotten about that one.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Right.

Aaron Rupar Which was, um, you know, one of the interesting things last week when this news started trickling out, That the Manhattan da Alvin Bragg was very close to making an indictment. I think a lot of people had to kind of rack their brains a little bit to remember the story. Daniel’s situation, because it was a big news story in 2018 into 2019 when Michael Cohen Trump’s former fixer, testified before Congressman talked about this, but it’s been a few years. So the Manhattan DA is investigating this hush money payment that was made to Stormy Daniels, who’s a woman who claimed she had an affair with Trump back about 15 years ago. The affair occurred and then the hush money payment was made in the final months of the 2016 campaign, right around the same time that a number of women were accusing Trump of sexual assault and misconduct. And so Trump had good reason. That time for trying to keep this under wraps. Uh, she was paid $130,000. But the problem was that this payment was never reported as a campaign contribution, even though pretty clearly was meant to benefit Trump’s presidential campaign. And so that allegedly, you know, Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to crimes in connection with this. So was a criminal act. It’s just a question of what Trump’s involvement was in it. Um, so that’s the focus, the Manhattan DA’s investigation. There’s also the investigation that Georgia authorities are doing into. Efforts following the 2020 election to Badger State officials in defining votes for him. Basically defrauding voters down there. And then there’s also the federal DOJ investigation into his, his mishandling of classified documents.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Mm-hmm.

Aaron Rupar Which was the one that was really in the news a lot last year, because that was the focus of the FBI raid that occurred last summer at Mar-a-Lago. So you have these three, these three separate investigations, the Manhattan DA Georgia, I believe there’s at least two investigations in Georgia pertaining to Trump’s efforts to, you know, essentially overturn the election result there. But you have the Georgia investigations, you have the Manhattan investigation, and you have the federal investigation. So those are the three big ones that are taking place right now.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings I know that the law is the law, but is it strange that of the serious cases, the serious investigations that are happening right now, it is this one from Stormy Daniels that has come back to potentially end with an arrest. Like of all the stuff on the table here. It’s that one.

Aaron Rupar Yeah, I think it is a little bit strange, but you know, all three of these investigations are. Operating independently of each other, and so it’s only strange insofar as these other investigations have been more top of mind in the focus of news coverage in recent months and years. The fact that there is possibly an indictment in the Manhattan case does not mean that there won’t be or will be in the other two. I mean, there’s a very real. Possibility, and I covered this speaking with a lawyer in my newsletter yesterday, public notice, you know, there’s a very real possibility that there could be kind of interlocking charges, um, that Trump is facing as he’s campaigning, heading into the 2024 presidential election. And then there’s, you know, complicated questions about what happens if there are multiple cases unfolding at the same time. Would one take precedence over another? How would that affect, you know, the schedule of potential trials that take place? So there is a little bit of a strange aspect just in that, you know, we lived through an attempted coup. Um, you know, we lived through Trump’s efforts to overturn the election. Obviously, you know, this, uh, mishandling of classified documents involving very, you know, some of the nation’s most secret files and documents, and the fact that Trump egregiously wouldn’t comply with subpoenas and was lying about. So, you know, when you think about the Stormy Daniels situation, maybe intuitively it doesn’t seem quite as bad or it doesn’t quite rise to that level. But, you know, again, as I kind of touched upon in my earlier response, um, this was a really big deal at the time because this affair allegedly occurred in 2006. Trump had just gotten married and had basically a newborn child, right? The fact that. You know, Trump’s sexual activities and misconduct was a big topic in the final months and weeks of the 2016 campaign. And had this story been out there, you know, it really could have, uh, swayed some hearts and minds potentially. You know, I saw these arguable that it could have. So the fact that this was hushed up, you know, I don’t think people should minimize that conduct. But at the same time, I mean, I think you’re right that, you know, if, if you ask people on the street here in America, which investigations are top of mind when it comes to Trump, I think they would say, you know, stuff pertaining to January 6th, then maybe the classified documents and not so much Stormy Daniels. Um, but you know, I mean, Trump’s done a lot of bad stuff and so there’s a lot of investigations into him. That’s just how it is.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Well, let’s work up, uh, our way to the ones that most people would assume would be top of mind. Maybe start with Georgia. Um, what is alleged to have happened there? What’s being investigated, and this has also been going on for some time. What do we know about, uh, where we’re at in that process?

Aaron Rupar Yeah, so the Georgia investigation, Pertains to Trump’s efforts to overturn the results there by having the Georgia Secretary of State in a recorded phone call, which most people have heard by now because the audio has been out there for a couple years. But, you know, Trump asked the Secretary of State to find, as he put it, just enough votes to. Put him over the top, uh, against Joe Biden in that state. I think he ended up losing by, you know, a handful of thousand votes. And he, he literally asked the Secretary of State to find one additional vote that, you know, would, would give him the, the result that he was looking for there in the state. And so, obviously this was, you know, an example of alleged defrauding of voters. And so, um, that phone call is, is kind. You know, centerpiece of this investigation, but the investigation is looking into Trump’s efforts to defraud voters by badgering, bullying state officials there to do his bidding, and essentially, you know, either. Uh, fabricate votes for him or toss out votes for Biden. And so, you know that that’s where that is at. There has been some reporting, and again, you know, there’s a grand jury that is convened and so the information that you get from leaks isn’t always accurate, but there has been some indication that the grand jury there in Georgia is wrapping up its work, you know, in all three of these. Cases that we’re talking about, there is incentive to try and bring indictments if those are going to happen sooner rather than later. Because you know, with any prosecutor, you want to avoid the perception that you’re meddling in a presidential campaign. And you know, obviously Trump is already a declared candidate.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Mm-hmm.

Aaron Rupar But we’re still about a year away, you know, maybe 10 months or so before any votes are actually cast in the primary. And so I think at this point there is still, you know, the perception that the wheels of justice are grinding and kind of doing their thing. But you know, if indictments were to happen a year from now and Trump is a Republican nominee for president, I think that adds a complicating factor where they start to be, to seem more politicized because the campaign has heated up. And so, you know, I think that’s also something that’s happening here in the Manhattan situation. But like I said, there has been some indications that the Georgia grand jury investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the election result there, um, is also nearing its work. And so we might have more new news from that soon too.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings And the federal investigation into, uh, mishandling of classified documents, is that anywhere near, um, potentially an indictment or even an a non-indictment? Uh, if that’s the decision they make, and I would guess, and you can explain this to me, that that one’s kind of just by its nature of being a federal investigation a little more politically fraught?

Aaron Rupar Yes, and that was why, if you recall back in November, attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel Jack Smith, who is handling this investigation. I think the best indication we’ve gotten that this one is really of concern to Trump is the fact that he has been. Kind of going wild over it on true social attacking Jack Smith’s wife for some of her connections with democratic politicians and attacking Jack Smith and attacking me. Garland Biden, you know, so he seems to be quite concerned about this investigation. Now that could just be Trump being Trump. But you know, this one has been, um, a little bit tighter in terms of leaks because again, you know, it’s a professional, highly regarded special counsel who is handling this investigation. But for some of the same reasons that me Garland appointed a special counsel for some of the same reasons that, you know, the FBI raid occurred in August and then there was no peep about the investigation until after the midterms. It seems that DOJ is very sensitive to political perception, and so I would expect there’s gonna be a lot of news one way or the other, whether. An indictment is brought or not, uh, with a special counsel investigation as well this year because we are, you know, coming up on the 2024 campaign, and so there’s incentive to wrap these things up quickly.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Is there still an investigation that could lead to charges in relation to January 6th and everything that happened there? Or has that kind of been, uh, left behind now that, you know, the hearings and, and the congressional panel, uh, has ended?

Aaron Rupar Yeah, I think the closest thing would be the Georgia investigation because obviously that is connected with the broader effort to overturn the election results.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Right.

Aaron Rupar Um, the fateful call between Trump and Secretary of State Waffens took place, I believe it was January 3rd, but it was just, in any event, it was just a day or two or three before January 6th. So those things kind of worked in concert with each other. But the January 6th situation specifically was more of a political investigation. Of course, there was the second impeachment of Trump in the impeachment trial that took place in February and March of 2021. So I don’t anticipate beyond that, that there is going to. Be criminal charges brought, um, of course there were some criminal referrals that the January 6th committee made to the Department of Justice as part of its investigation, and there hasn’t been any indication that the DOJ is going to act on those or bring charges in connection with those.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Hmm.

Aaron Rupar Myself, you know, not, not being super on the inside of this, but I would say as an informed observer, I’m not expecting there to be criminal charges that’s sort of out there, you know, in the realm of public opinion. And Trump is running for president and so, You know, voters will have an opportunity, um, whether it’s in the Republican primary or in a general election, to, uh, provide another referendum on January 6th, you know, in the 2024 election.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings So, I’m not gonna ask you specifically about what’ll happen, you know, in the minutes and hours, uh, and day after Trump is arrested, if indeed he, he ever is, because we just don’t know. And you know, you mentioned previously that he’s called for protests. Uh, that may or may not happen. I’m sure that there will be some blowback in some situation. But in general, as you look at the American political landscape right now, like what would it mean to see former President Trump walk into a police station and be charged and have his fingerprints taken? And, and what would that shift if anything.

Aaron Rupar Well, I think definitely the mugshot will break the internet.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings There will be a mugshot, I guess there has to be, right? Yes.

Aaron Rupar Yeah. If he’s booked, there will be a mugshot. Um, now sometimes I, I am not myself a lawyer. Um, now there are instances where these mugshots do not seem to see the light of day, but, Um, I, again, I talked with a, a lawyer who’s an expert on these matters, uh, for my newsletter yesterday, and he said that he expects there will be a mugshot and that it will be, you know, circulating a social media published by news publications, all that sort of stuff. So, um, there’s that, I mean, that’s kind of a trivial thing. And here’s the other thing that I should emphasize is that we have not seen the indictment yet. So we don’t know the full facts here. I mean, we know some of the facts because again, you know, when Michael Cohen testified before Congress, he had checks that he produced showing the reimbursement that he received from Trump, you know, checks signed by Trump reimbursing him for the hush payment that was made to Stormy Daniels. So, seen some of the evidence, but we don’t know all of the evidence that’s been presented to the grand jury because those proceedings are secret. And so I anticipate there will be details in a possible indictment that the public does not know at this point. And so I think it’s a little bit presumptuous to analyze something that we haven’t seen. But in terms of kind of the broader question, you know, I think people, their minds are so made up about Trump. Yeah. You know, Trump has already said he is not going to leave. If he’s indicted, um, I don’t get the sense that it’s going to erode his standing among Republicans. Um, the FBI raid that occurred last summer is kind of a case in point where Trump actually gained about 10 points in the polling respective to Ron DeSantis after that raid. So it seemed, if anything, to help him among the Republican base. The legal theory here of the hush payments crime, I mean, there’s some speculation that the Manhattan DA, might try and demonstrate that Trump. What the campaign finance laws were when he violated them. And one interesting twist, and I, I talked about this in my newsletter yesterday too, is that there was a very similar case here in America, which your listeners might recall, pertaining to John Edwards, who was a Democratic presidential candidate in 2008.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Right.

Aaron Rupar And had an affair with a woman who actually had his child. And then there was a scheme to use campaign contributions through a surrogate to pay this woman. There’s some controversy about what the payments were for, whether it was for her silence or just to kind of help with the child that John Edwards father, uh, John Edwards was charged and ultimately acquit. Some of the charges were tossed out and Trump around this time that John Edwards was going to trial in 2012, went on cable news and did analysis of this case. He actually came down in the camp that said that Edwards should not have been tried. But these clips are interesting now because it shows that Trump actually had awareness of the same campaign finance laws that haven’t snared him.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Mm-hmm.

Aaron Rupar And so that kind of adds a possible element of intent that can change us from misdemeanour to a felony type of charge. And so again, we haven’t seen the indictment, but um, I don’t anticipate that the charges, he will be. Facing in connection with the Stormy Daniels situation are any that are going to, you know, land him behind bars for years or, uh, make it impossible for him to campaign. So yeah, I mean that, that is maybe kind of a depressing aspect of this is that I think kind of in terms of the political question and Trump’s standing as a presidential candidate, I don’t anticipate this hurting him very much. But, you know, there, there’s a possibility that, you know, if he faces felony charges in Georgia, if he faces felony charges federally in connection, The classified documents, investigation. I mean, these things could definitely add up for him, but in isolation, if we’re just talking about the legal situation with Stormy Daniels and the hush payments, I don’t see this being something that is going to kind of like disqualify him in the sense that he’s gonna be facing serious prison time or something like that.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Given that he said, uh, he intends to run and probably nothing will stop him from doing that. Do we have any idea what the argument, uh, that’ll be made on his behalf by, you know, the right wing ecosystem will be, I know you spend a lot of your time kind of monitoring what Fox, Newsmax, oan, et cetera, are saying, uh, how’s this gonna get spun?

Aaron Rupar Oh yeah. And they’re already furiously spinning this, and the span is that Biden is losing in the polls to Trump and he’s trying to take out. Political rival instead of beating him on the campaign trail. Now, whether Trump is actually ahead of Biden, I don’t think there’s been a ton of really credible polling on that at this point. I suspect that if it ends up being a rerun of Biden versus Trump, I would like Biden’s chances to win that again. But you know, it’s a very convenient political narrative. For defenders of Trump, where, you know, this is just a politicized liberal DA who is doing Biden’s bidding by trying to take out Biden’s main rival ahead of the campaign. So you can see how the, the fact pattern kind of fits that. But, um, you know, again, this Stormy Daniel stuff has been out there for years and years, well before Biden decided to run for president and Michael Cohen, who obviously worked intimately with Trump for many decades. Presented some pretty smoking gun evidence that’s already been in the public domain. Um, so I don’t get the sense that this is like a politicized investigation. I mean, I think that there is a pattern of misconduct and a fact pattern here that, you know, and, and implicates trump in some pretty serious crimes, and that’s what is being investigated and possibly prosecuted here. But we’ve been enduring years and years of this in of every investigation of Trump, whether they’re political investigations with the impeachments that he went through, or whether they’re criminal investigations, the Mueller investigation, I mean, these have all been witch hunts according to Trump and his supporters. And so that’s really nothing new. But it’s, you know, it’s a way to kind of deflect from the substance that I will note that, um, just before we hopped on this, this call, Kevin McCarthy was asked during a Republican retreat if he had any concerns about the actual conduct of the Stormy Daniel’s hush money payments, and he deflected by immediately talking about Hillary Clinton, which is very unbrand. And so there’s endless ways that Republicans can deflect from actually talking about the substance here.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Last question. Do you spend any time thinking about what. A presidential campaign between, uh, Donald Trump under indictment for either this or whatever else, and President Joe Biden would look like, like that’s unprecedented, obviously. Can you picture it?

Aaron Rupar I can picture it, yes. Um, you know, I can picture if there is some sort of trial in Manhattan, Trump using that as another campaign opportunity to kind of grandstand and. Try to, to the extent possible craft clips, whether they are from press conferences, after the court hearings are done, that are used on Fox News, that sort of thing. I don’t think it’s going to ultimately help Trump. You know, again, we’re gonna have indictments that are out there with very detailed fact patterns and allegations if he is indicted, and I don’t think those are going to look. Good for him. And I also don’t think, you know, to the extent that Trump is just gonna try and rerun his 2020 campaign, which seems to be what he’s trying to do. And you know, he is out there in the campaign events that he’s had so far, basically trying to rewrite the history of his presidency. That it was kind of this golden age for America until Covid hit and then it kind of ruined everything for him. But, you know, when he left office, the stock market was doing great and the economy was ready to jump back. Nevermind that 80,000 people died of Covid in his last month that he was in office. Um, but I, I don’t think that’s going to be a winning. You know, campaign for him, you know, with the note of caution mixed in that we’re a long way still from the general election campaign, which won’t really heat up obviously for, you know, 14, 15, 16 months until next summer. And so a lot can change.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Yes.

Aaron Rupar You know, we’re seeing right now with some. Lack of stability in the banking system here in the States and across the world. You know, if there’s a banking crisis that really affects the economy, that would obviously be really bad for Biden. So there’s a, there’s a lot of things that can happen if there’s an escalation of the war in Ukraine, you know, if, if that, you know, turns into, uh, protracted situation that is kind of bleeding resources and destabilizes Europe, that could be really bad for Biden. So, you know, a lot can change, but I think that, um, Argument that he’s been kind of previewing is not an especially strong one. Um, in terms of what it will look like if he’s campaigning under indictments, um, , you know, again, I think it’ll just provide more opportunities for Trump to try and get on favorable TV networks and kind of use, use that. Situation to up, to advance a witch hunt narrative. I doubt that’ll be successful, but, you know, we’ll, we’ll see what happens. Aaron, thank you as always for, uh, helping us untangle some of this and we’ll keep a close eye on what happens next, I guess. Yeah, my pleasure. Anytime.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Aaron Rupar. You can find his writing every day at public notice on ck. That was the big story. For more head to the big story podcast.ca, we don’t often cover Donald Trump on this podcast. However, The prospect of a former president arrested potential political violence, a challenged presidential campaign, and just the general chaos that would result from Donald Trump running for president while under indictment and possibly attending his own trial. Thought it was worth it. We’ll be back to Canada tomorrow, I promise. You can find us on Twitter at the big story fp n. You can always email us hello at the big story podcast.ca. You can call us anytime. Leave a voicemail, 4 1 6 9 3 5 5 9 3 5, and you can find this podcast and subscribe to it or follow it or whatever it is they ask you to do, and please rate and review it wherever you get podcasts. Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. We’ll talk tomorrow.