Will Alberta’s close election be decided by policy, or scandal?

CLIP You’re listening to a frequency podcast network production in association with City News.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Most of the time, and by that I mean basically all of the time, if I were to tell you Alberta was having an election, that would be all you needed to know. Sure. Okay, thanks. You might say, tell me when the conservative Premier gets sworn. And that’s it. But in 2015, Rachel Notley and the NDP didn’t just score an upset over the conservatives. They blew them out across the province, and then the conservatives by then known as the United Conservative Party, return the favour and blew them out almost across the province in 2019. And now an election looms in two months and polls legitimately for the first time in decades in Alberta are too close to call. They’re within the margin for error. So what has happened to Alberta over the past few years? How has Covid policy torn the province’s political fabric apart exactly how many scandals are facing current Premier Danielle Smith? And I’m not joking, when I also ask, do enough Albertans even care about her Covid scandals anymore to make a difference or do they just maybe want to hear about some actual policy before they vote. I’m Jordan Heath–Rawlings. This is the big story. Courtney Theriault is a reporter for City News based in Edmonton. He covers all things in Alberta, but especially provincial politics. Hello, Courtney.

Courtney Theriault Good morning, Jordan.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings I just wanna ask you, because I couldn’t figure this out, and it looks like it might happen this time. When is the last time Alberta had a close provincial election?

Courtney Theriault Uh, yeah, it’s a bit of a rarity. We certainly don’t see photo finishes around these parts very often. Part of that is, of course, you’re talking about 50 plus years of conservative rule, with the exception of that little slice of, uh, orange Crush when the N D P won in 2015. But even that was a blowout, right? Even, even that was a blowout. Yeah. The closest that we’ve seen in our lifetime, uh, goes back all the way to 1993, and that was a battle between, uh, essentially two big city mayors. You had Ralph Klein, uh, the former mayor of Calgary, lining up for the progressive conservatives, and he had Lawrence Decor, former mayor of Edmonton under the liberal banner. That is the closest one we’ve. And it came in at 51 to 32 in favor of the conservatives. So the very fact that we are facing, uh, a, a completely uncontrollable election at this point, we, we don’t know who’s gonna come out on top. This is something that, uh, again, you probably have to go back to the inception of Alberta.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Wow. To see something as undecided as, and you mentioned, we don’t know who’s gonna win yet. Alberta votes in what, about two months? And, and what do the polls tell us? How close are they?

Courtney Theriault Yeah. May 29th is, uh, the fixed election date. Uh, so that’s, uh, when we do know we will be going to the polls, even though the election itself hasn’t been called. The polls, as I mentioned, uh, essentially neck and neck right now, uh, tighter than spandex, I guess would be the best comparison. But, uh, essentially any margin of difference that we’re seeing on the poll on a daily basis falls well within the margin of error.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Hmm.

Courtney Theriault What we do know is that, uh, Edmondson is locked. Up for the NDP in, in essence, while much of rural Alberta is going to be decidedly blue, that leaves Calgary as the, uh, the key battleground. And, uh, that’s where the polls really matter. And fortunately for Edmontonians, we’re tied up in following the Oilers playoff odds. So we don’t care that all the politicians are basically spending the next several months in Calgary trying to, to, to woo voters in, in that city, because that is ultimately going to decide. Who takes the mantle here, and the polls have seemingly suggested that, uh, the NDP have a, a narrow lead there. Whether or not that’s gonna be enough to essentially get form government remains to be seen, but, uh, certainly, uh, it’s it’s neck and neck where it matters most. The last time we covered, uh, Alberta Provincial Politics, Danielle Smith was about to win, uh, the United Conservative Party leadership. Taking over, obviously from Jason Kenny, she became Premier.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings How, uh, how smoothly have the first six months gone?

Courtney Theriault Uh, how long is this podcast?

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Oh, boy.

Courtney Theriault Yeah. It’s, it has been quite, uh, an adventurous six months. Uh, I’d say it’s certainly not Tdk, but Channa Rhymes would’ve a hard time keeping up with the scandals we’ve seen so far. Obviously it all began with the very first day and, uh, her comments that the unvaccinated were the most discriminated people that she’d ever seen in her lifetime.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Oh, right. I forgot about that one.

Courtney Theriault Yeah, that was day one. And, and since then, uh, it has been, uh, a litany of, uh, unforced errors on her part. There have been comments about indigenous people where she at one point had said that Alberta is treated the same way by Ottawa as indigenous people. She, at one point she’d said that, uh, indigenous people and the settlers worked together to tame an unforgiving frontier that certainly evoked some, uh, raised eyebrows. She actually raised questions about the Ukraine’s. In the invasion of its own country. Hmm. Questions about residential school graves. There was the issue that’s becoming a, a big one for her now, which is this R star program, which essentially would give oil companies a tax credit to clean up their own old abandoned wells. And so essentially it’s been a case of her stepping on one rake after another. Hmm. It’s become essentially a 24 hour news cycle where if you can get through one day without some new scandal, it’s, it’s almost an. The current scandal, which I gather revolves around the Premier’s conversations about what she could do regarding charges related to Covid protocols.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Can you unpack this a little for, for those of us who aren’t in the province and have maybe just seen a headline?

Courtney Theriault Yeah, well this is the, the shadow that has been looming over, uh, both her run to, to become the leader of the UCCP and Premier of Alberta, as well as the six plus months of her tenure in the top job. As we mentioned, it all began with the fact that, uh, she wanted to woo uh, a certain element of conservative voter. Essentially get her the top gig. And part of that was a promise to look into Covid prosecutions. Uh, in her mindset, she felt that it had crossed the line. And so once she took power, uh, she reiterated that and she said that, uh, she would look into something, uh, along the lines of potential clemency. And, uh, as we know, that is a power that is typically reserved uniquely for, uh, American presidents and governors. Not something that, uh, premier. Can do.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Right.

Courtney Theriault And so there’ve been a few videos and then comments that have crept out over the course of the last couple months. Uh, the first one that raised eyebrows was in January when she said that she had been in contact with prosecutors about these ongoing cases, which is absolutely a no-no. Of course she wanted to have maintained the independence of that office when it comes to criminal cases. There was a video that, uh, she had shot with Ezra Levant of, uh, rebel Media, where she reiterated that same thing, saying that, yes, I had been in contact in with prosecutors. Now she has spent the last couple months essentially saying that she misspoke, that she used. Imprecise language. It’s this latest tape, however that came out last week that has really kind of increased the pressure with respect to calls for a judicial inquiry from her critics. Once the process is underway, I can ask our prosecutors, is there a reasonable likelihood of conviction and is it in the public interest? And I assure you, I have asked them that almost weekly, ever since I got started. She had a phone call with Controversial Street, pastor Arthur Pulowski, who has, well, shall we say, made some rather insensitive remarks about race and the LGBTQ plus two s community in the past, uh, amongst others. And he has been charged with, uh, a couple of counts tied to the Coots blockade. Well, in this phone call that he taped and posted. He essentially grilled the premier as to why he was still being prosecuted and what he thought was a politically driven prosecution. Uh, at various times throughout the tape, she said that she would take a look at the case that she had spoken to prosecutors, weekly about the case, huh? Said that prosecutors still needed to be independent. So there was only so much that she could do, but she then added that she thought that the cases were politically motivated. And she also said that she thought that she could grant clemency when she was elected, but it turns out that it’s not the way it’s done. So that was, uh, a, a lesson in civics for the premier. And this is, uh, the one that has led, uh, NDP leader Rachel Notley, to call for a judicial review. Over the repeated references to the fact that Danielle Smith, in her own words has said she has talked to prosecutors regularly about Covid 19 prosecutions, which she says is simply a case of imprecise language on her part, and that she only ever talked to the justice minister, the deputy minister, and senior officials.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings How is the province as a whole reacted to this?

Courtney Theriault Um, and I’m imagining, though you can correct me, that uh, there are two distinct, very distinct. Alberta definitely is a polarized province when it comes to the political spectrum. Uh, those who fall firmly within the U C P camp have absolutely accepted the premier’s, uh, reasoning that it is imprecise language and no one could conceivably have interpreted it any other way. On the flip side, you have those in the NDP camp saying that the fact that she has repeatedly used the word prosecutor, uh, ad nauseum, demonstrates that in fact, she was talking about interfering in an independent prosecution. Now, what’s interesting ahead of the election is, well, you’re not going to change the minds of those individuals. Some polls have suggested that as many as 25% of Albertans have yet to make up their mind. And one thing I can say with absolute certainty, whether you are, uh, voting NDP or UCP or if you’re somewhere in that grey middle area, is that the vast majority of people no longer want to talk about Covid. And so the more that this case gets dragged out, there seems to be detrimental to the premier’s chances. I do want to ask about, uh, the UCP in general and I guess particularly cabinet. There have been some resignations recently, which again, correct me if I’m wrong, seems pretty unusual heading into such a close election. The number of MLA’s who are choosing not to run again, he isn’t unusually high, but it’s the names that have dropped out that uh, have certainly. Got tongues wagging, uh, in particular finance minister Travis TAs, uh, who was, uh, the runner up to Danielle Smith in the UCP leadership campaign. Uh, he is, uh, one and done as an MLA. He will not be seeking reelection and in his letter, He did not make reference to Danielle Smith simply saying that he continues to support the UCP and the conservative movement, which stands in sharp contrast to some of the other letters that we’ve seen, uh, particularly from, uh, environment Minister Sonya Savage, who was previously the energy minister who did thank the premier. For her time. Now, what’s interesting, of course about this is those two individuals are considered moderates within the UCP and, uh, certainly behind the scenes it still feels like there’s a bit of a, a civil war struggle between, uh, the Jason Kenny moderates, if you will, uh, as well as a slightly more far right wing entity known as Takeback. Which has been, uh, working its way to, uh, seemingly get more of its candidates nominated under the UCP banner going forward. That seems to be the, the, the big struggle and, and, and the interesting element of the resignations we’ve seen so far is that tho those moderate voices that uh, might be able to lure in those more center right, center left voters, they are the ones who are at this point in time are, are deciding to sit this one out with Danielle Smith at the helm.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings I was about to ask you about take back Alberta. What do we know about them and um, are they, as I’ve seen them referred to the sort. People that Jason Kenny called the Lunatics attempting to take over the asylum.

Courtney Theriault Yeah. They are a, a, an interesting group that, uh, certainly helped to lead Danielle Smith into, uh, the, the, the Premiership. It’s an interesting grassroots sort of group that has kind of worked its way into the local constituencies. They are the ones who initially proposed a. Drastic version of the Sovereignty Act. That is where Danielle Smith first came up with that concept. It was a taking back Alberta, uh, notion. And yeah, you are right. This is the group to whom, uh, Jason Kenny was referring to when they were talking about taking over the asylum. And it’s led to some very interesting candidates along the way. For example, one backed candidate, uh, was Lethbridge West candidate Tori Tanner, who resigned last week, uh, no longer running under the UCP banner. She had posted a video that said that, uh, kids attending kindergarten were being exposed to porn, and that teachers were the one leading the helm on this. And of course, that irked a lot of people. You know, those within the N D P, uh, but certainly those on the conservative side of the spectrum, which is where the notion of what Takeback Alberta is doing, I think is, uh, certainly raising some questions.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings I want to ask about the NDP now, particularly because I know at various points during the pandemic, the N D P was way up in the polls. As we’ve discussed, uh, there’s been a lot of gaffs and mistakes by Smith as Premier since she came in that have, you know, whatever your politics have, have garnered her negative attention. How have the polls tightened so much, uh, in the face of that? What’s Notley doing right now?

Courtney Theriault Where Rachel Notley has failed to maintain that lead, that notable lead she had when Jason Kenny was premier, uh, comes from the fact that there hasn’t been one issue necessarily that has stood out for Albertans that she’s been able to sink her teeth into, to make hay with. You take a look at the most recent budget, and certainly there were calls on her part for more funding, uh, essentially across the board, particularly when it came to healthcare. Well, lo and behold, Danielle Smith’s first budget as Premier did exactly that and left Rachel Notley with essentially one less obvious N D P pillar, right, to be able to pursue. And so, Yeah, she’s, she’s had difficulty finding that thing, that one negative component with Danielle Smith to connect with Albertans, but she is making, uh, a concerted effort to make this judicial inquiry, political interference element, essentially the headline for the election. You mentioned at the top that Albertans were pretty sick of talking about covid, the election’s kicking off soon.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings What do they want to talk about?

Courtney Theriault Uh, when it comes to Alberta, whether it’s an election in 1971 or an election in 2023, it’s the economy. And healthcare, uh, the economy, of course, uh, very much tied to the boom bust cycle of the oil industry. And it just so happens that we’re going boom right now, which, uh, absolutely has historically benefited the party in power. And certainly I think that has helped to bolster Danielle Smith’s, uh, and the UCPs Fortunes heading into the election.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Healthcare, though is going to be the one I think that ultimately probably. Decides who takes the reins under the dome on May 29th?

Courtney Theriault Uh, because, uh, certainly there have been a lot of tumultuous moments with healthcare in the province, particularly over the Covid era.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Mm-hmm.

Courtney Theriault We’ve had issues in terms of staffing, which are not, new or, or not necessarily limited rather to Alberta, but the strain here is much, much more significant. To give you a comparison, we were talking about a story last week with family doctor residencies and how there were nearly 50 spots open in Alberta under this most recent round of residencies. Whereas in BC they had two openings, and in Saskatchewan there were none, which is to suggest that there’s the appearance. Doctors simply don’t wanna work in Alberta.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings What will you be looking for specifically?

Courtney Theriault Um, once the election is officially called and gets under. I think what’s going to be interesting to me is ultimately what is going to be the focus. Uh, as I mentioned, certainly the economy and healthcare are the two priorities for Albertans, but as we’ve seen over the course of the seven months that Danielle Smith has been at the helm of the province, we’ve seen controversy after controversy. And will those key political issues, those policy issues that Albertans do genuinely care about, will those get drowned out by an October surprise, or more specifically a may surprise, because if there’s one thing we’ve seen over the course of the last several months is that, The N D P research team is very, very good at their job, and I would say it’s safe to say that, uh, between now and May 29th, we’re probably looking at least at another half dozen scandals just based on the ratios that we’ve seen so far, because again, our scandal, the population ratio much higher than Ontario’s.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Isn’t there kind of a law of diminishing returns around scandals involving UCP candidates?

Courtney Theriault Again, you know, it’s, uh, I, I, I think it’s very akin to what we’ve seen in the United States with Donald Trump, which is to say that the notion of aha, this is the one, this is the time, the scandal that will sink the president, and then lo and behold, he wriggles his way out of it. And so I think there’s a certain truth to that, that, uh, in the 24 hour news cycle, the scandals will raise temperatures for a brief period before floating back into the ether. And, uh, you’re not wrong. I think that, uh, we, we have yet to see one scandal stick, uh, which is why it’s going to be interesting to see between now and May 29th if, if this potential political interference one is the one that moves the needle for Albertans, or if it’s just the outrage du.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Last question, and I swear I’m not trying to ask a leading one, but given everything that we’ve just discussed, is there a possibility that Rachel Knotley could lose this simply by trying to focus too hard on all these scandals as opposed to actual policy?

Courtney Theriault I think that’s very much, uh, a, a realistic situation. I mean, the truth of the matter is, again, it ties into a topic that Albertans are tired of talking about. It doesn’t matter who’s leading the conversation on Covid. The fact is that there are more pressing concerns for the average Alberta voter. As I mentioned, the economy in the healthcare certainly leading the way.And as much as you want to paint Danielle Smith as someone who. Doesn’t understand the line that she’s crossed and doesn’t understand how Canadian politics are done. Yes, absolutely. The, the, the risk is there that this could be the type of thing that backfires on her. And sours, calians, as I mentioned, where the battleground is, sours Calgarians on, on voting n d p and could, could conceivably cost to the election. But again, that’s the thing about our border of politic. You just never know.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Courtney, thank you so much for this and maybe we’ll be back in touch at the end of the campaign you’re gearing up for.

Courtney Theriault Uh, absolutely. And, uh, we’ll have, uh, 100 different plot lines to add to the story between now and then. I’m sure.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Courtney Theriault reports for City News out of Edmonton. That was the big story. For more, you can head to the big story podcast.ca. You can find us on Twitter at the big story fpn, and you can always email us hello at the big story podcast.ca. If you don’t like email because it’s too impersonal, you can call us and leave a voice message. The phone number is four one six nine three five five nine three. And if you’re listening to this podcast in an app that lets you rate it or review it or share it with your friends, we’d love it if you take two seconds to do that. Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. We’ll talk tomorrow.