How will the Sudan crisis end? And what role will Canada play?

CLIP You are listening to a Frequency podcast network production.

Jordan Heath Rawlings For those who don’t closely follow international news, the conflict may have seemed to ignite out of nowhere.

CLIP We begin in Sudan where citizens and foreigners are trying to escape the fighting between the army and the party. Rapid Support Forces.

CLIP Where violence erupted less than 10 days ago, killing hundreds, and the worsening situation, the UN warns could engulf the whole region.

Jordan Heath Rawlings But the dangerous situation in Sudan has roots that go back years to an overthrown dictator and a stalled push towards true democracy. It’s important to understand how this happened, but that is right now less important than the immediate emergency, which is endangering millions, including Canadians and their family members, who are desperate to flee the escalating violence. Initially, Canada’s response was scorned as nowhere near enough. But as things on the ground have changed rapidly, so has the government’s approach. The situation though remains dire. Hundreds at least, are already dead. So what is happening right now on the ground? How did it come to this? What has Canada done both for Canadians and Sudanese, and what more could it still do? And finally, critically, how does this conflict resolve? And what role might Canada play in that? I am Jordan Heath-Rawlings. This is the big story. Dr. Khalid Mustafa Medani is an associate professor of political science and Islamic studies at McGill University. He’s also chair of the African Studies Program. Hello, Dr. Madani.

Dr. Medani Hello. Thank you for having me on your show.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Thank you for helping explain to us exactly what’s going on in Sudan right now, and, and I know that, uh, we are speaking on Wednesday afternoon. The situation there is very fluid, but can you tell me about the situation on the ground right now? Where is the fighting and how intense is it at the moment?

Dr. Medani Unfortunately, the fighting is at the very heart of the capital city. Which houses approximately 8 million people. And that has never occurred in, uh, Sudan in its entire history. And so you can imagine that, uh, you have about, you know, upwards of 8 million people, uh, essentially held hostage in the context of two generals who are trying basically to achieve an outright military victory from their perspective. It’s a zero sum game. Um, one is the general of the Army and the other is the Head of a paramilitary militia, but an extremely strong one that had over the years and, and, and especially in the past few weeks, mobilized around different neighborhoods in the Capitol. Uh, so what is happening now on the ground is, uh, a really dire humanitarian crisis. People unable to leave their homes. They are, uh, huge shortages, dramatic and drastic shortages of basic food supplies. You know, water, electricity, uh, medicines. 70% of the hospitals have been bombed as a result of jet fighters bombing these hospitals and being looted also by militia forces on the ground. Uh, thousands of Sudanese are fleeing and, and half fled across the borders to Egypt, Ethiopia chat, and as I’m sure that your listeners and you are aware, Over the last, uh, three days or so, there’s been a, a kind of scramble on the part of western governments and, and actually, um, all gov all foreign governments in Sudan to evacuate their personnel. Uh, it began with essential and diplomatic staff, as in the case of the US, Canada, and let’s say Saudi Arabia. And now in the case of Canada for example, uh, they’re trying to. Actually evacuate, um, Sudanese, uh, Canadians who are not diplomats in essential staff, but are still stuck approximately in the case of Canada. I think about upwards of the ones who registered as Canadians in Sudan, 1,400 or so. I’m not sure of the figure, but very significant. And so it’s a really dire humanitarian crisis. Unprecedented in the history of what has always been a troubled country, but not this kind of violence. I know that you have written extensively on this topic, and I know you could teach a course on the big picture context here, but maybe for our listeners who have been unfamiliar with what’s been going on in the country for the past few years, you know, a, a long time dictator was overthrown, uh, I believe in 2019 h.

Jordan Heath Rawlings How did we get from there to the conflict happening right now? If, if it’s even possible to sort of summarize that in brief.

Dr. Medani No, of course, of course. I think that, uh, Sudan came into the headlines, particularly globally in, uh, December, 2018 and throughout 2019 where there was a very, you know, um, unprecedented really revolution, a pro-democracy revolution where millions of Sudanese, uh, Throughout the country, not only the capital city rose up to protest for democracy. And eventually in um, April of 2019, overthrew the former dictator by the name of Omed Bash, who had ruled the Sudan under a very strong Islamist authoritarian military rule. For 30 years in those, in the course of those 30 years, he had implemented, uh, scorched earth policies and a war against insurgents in that war. And I think that part of the history some of your listeners would know were upwards of 200,000 Sudanese civilians in that war were essentially eliminated as a result of that war. Millions, uh, um, you know, over a million displaced that was an ethnic cleansing of. Really unbelievable proportions in a huge, huge tragedy. Uh, the one who was assigned to actually met out that violence is presently the head of the paramilitary militia that is at war with the general. And so I think that for your viewer or your listeners rather, it’s important for them to know that one of the main actors or protagonist here, the head of the paramilitary. Militia is also the same general that was responsible for, uh, the killing of in that form. Uh, so those two things are connected. How we got here after that revolution, unfortunately, is that following that revolution, the international community, along with of course, uh, Sudanese, a brokered uh, partnership, a fragile coalition government between civilians and military leaders to oversee the country to, uh, transition to democracy through election. Fortunately in October, 2021, general Bohan, who now is the head of the Army and is the second protagonist in this conflict, conspired with the head of the militia leader, the two who are actually fighting, conspired together and partnered to wage a military coup in 2021. To overthrow this experiment, attempt rather to, uh, see the country through a transition towards democracy. The coup did not consolidate their power. However, Sudanese, uh, throughout the country, uh, continued their pro-democracy protests. Forcing these two generals to get, once again around the negotiation table and in the context of being, uh, supported by the UN and um, uh, United Kingdom. The US Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates worked out what was called the framework agreement once again, to see the country through to a transition to democracy, a number of stipulations in that framework agreement became extremely contentious. I’m going to focus on one. Because I think your listeners are most interested in the catalyst to the present conflict, and that had to do with the stipulation of the agreement that would force and compel both parties to integrate the forces of the militias into one standing army. To secure the stability of the country. It is here. This is the precise, contentious issue that led to this conflict. Uh, two generals who had partnered to, uh, put down Democrat democracy activist and conspired to kill hundreds of thousands in four, you know, disagreed. On the timetable of this integration for the general of the Army, he wanted it quickly, naturally, in two years, the head of the militia, by the name of Deo Orti, uh, decided that he would want to postpone it for 10 years, essentially refusing to integrate his militia. At this point, both generals, uh, perceived the situation in terms of a zero sum game and much more in a kind of their military calculation was that they would have to. Eliminate their military li rival as the only way possible for them to consolidate their military rule, their rule of the military, and eventually take complete control of the country. And this is how this awful, uh, humanitarian crisis actually began. As you mentioned, it’s an incredibly dangerous situation on the ground right now. I know that reliable information has been hard to come by, but what do we know about the risk to civilians or any idea about possible casualties like.

Jordan Heath Rawlings What’s our window into what’s actually happening on the streets?

Dr. Medani Well, when you see the official figures from the United Nations, for example, the figures of the civilian deaths so far are, uh, upwards of 500 or so. That’s of course, as you can imagine, an underestimation because there really are very few UN agencies left. A very small UN team, uh, remains, and so there are no reliable estimations. I want your listeners to understand that those figures really. Do not represent the severity of the humanitarian crisis. And that is because of the fact, as I said before, that in addition to the physical insecurity and the civilian deaths we are having in one of Africa’s, you know, largest capitals and the third largest country in the world, in the, in its capital, millions of people who are un unable to literally access, uh, food, water medicine that has led people who. Would never leave their homes to, to flee in any way possible in the tens of thousands. It’s not just because of their, of course, held hostage to the bullets and aerial bombardments, although that is absolutely key. That’s why the infrastructure of the city has been destroyed. It’s also, and it’s very important, if I, if you don’t mind me, to impress upon listeners and others that it is not possible to really survive in the medium term even for uh, families. Even if you had the finances, and most do not, at the moment, there is absolutely no way to access cash, uh, to even buy food if that was in fact available. And the majority of stores, of course, are, are closed. And so you can imagine, if you don’t mind me saying, let’s say Ottawa, where all of a sudden overnight, not only do you experience bullets and Aerial or Mars, but you’re not able to access food. Yeah. The only option you have, whether you are wealthy or poor middle class or not is to flee for your life and for your family’s life.

Jordan Heath Rawlings I wanna ask this question delicately, of course, but I do know that you have family members who are within the country. Where are they, are they trying to flee, as you just mentioned? And and what have you heard from them?

Dr. Medani Well, I heard the yes, they are trying to flee, flee. I have immediate family and extended family. They represent, of course, the entire country. I’m always happy to talk about their experience as it’s representative in the country. Of course, we’re not the only family, but, uh, they’re in the north now in, uh, Fortunate because part of my family is actually from the north, and so it’s their home region historically. And so they’re being, uh, supported by relatives and family members there as they seek to try to leave the country and, um, go on to our northern neighbor. And hopefully, of course, for my, in my case, I, I’d like to bring them near me. And, um, that is the case of. Tens of thousands of, of Sudanese. So my other relatives, uh, remain in and, uh, I have difficulty contacting them. I spend a lot of time on the phone trying to convince them to flee because believe it or not, even with this situation, uh, many of our relatives refuse to leave their home and we’re trying to persuade them that they don’t have a choice. And so everyone is in the same boat in this respect. You mentioned you’d like to, uh, bring your family members closer to you.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Have they asked Canada for help and what kind of response did they see and what kind of role is Canada playing right now? Attempting to help Canadians with Sudanese family or Canadians over there? There was a lot of criticism when this, uh, broke out.

Dr. Medani Yeah. There was a lot of criticism as if the, the government was not, you know, kind of experienced with these kinds of conflict and, you know, statements saying that, you know, Canadian citizens should shelter in place. That, of course, is unfeasible because in these conflicts, things spiral out of control very quickly. And the timing is really essential. And so that has changed in terms of, first the Canadians have decided, of course, to evacuate in collaboration with their partners, particularly first Germany and then, and then the United States in terms of getting their diplomatic and essential staff. But the shift in policy has been a really concerted effort now and planning to, to get Canadian citizens, you know, uh, Sudanese, uh, you know, Sudanese. Who carry Canadian, uh, passports to get them out as, as, uh, as you know, through the Red Sea area to two, two Canadian vessels are there now, uh, waiting to, to see if that they, you know, they can receive them. But it is of course, late for many Canadians. There’s been a lot of. Criticism. You know, I talked to Canadian Sun Canadians in Ottawa, in Toronto, just today talk to four groups who are, uh, lobbying and we may be talking to members of Parliament soon. So, um, that is very important. There has been an policy, as, you know, to extend permits for, for sunis here that is not sufficient. It’s really important to allow and have a policy of temporary status for Sudanese coming here, even, uh, if they don’t have Canadian citizenship. And I, of course, It’s very important to, and I think, uh, the Prime Minister Trudeau said that yesterday, that here the emphasis should be on dependence, not only those who, you know, carry, uh, Canadian passports, right? In other words, uh, that’s essential. That’s really essential because most of us, In fact, support our family on a monthly, if not in a weekly basis directly.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Mm-hmm.

Dr. Medani Not Canadian secreted citizens, but they’re dependents and, uh, and that policy has to be done quickly and swiftly. And the timing here is of the essence. So it has to be expedited. And so this is really what, uh, needs to be done now. And I think a number of people are working on it. Your, this broadcast helps to, to do that. It’s. Been done for other humanitarian crises, as you know, Syrians and Ukraine. So there is a great deal of experience in this respect on the part of Ottawa.

Jordan Heath Rawlings How difficult is it to get planes in and to get people out? We’ve heard a number of kind of harrowing tales, I guess, of the impossibility of that in certain places. Like what’s that like right now?

Dr. Medani It’s very difficult and that’s one of the, the issues of course to come in. First of all, the national airport is closed. There is a northern airstrip, but whether it’s Americans or Canadians and others, they’re very little security and the, you know, the prime Minister was absolutely correct. He didn’t know what to do in terms of where to land the planes, and that’s why the. Is the most convenient and logistically, of course, feasible. The issue is that it’s, it’s extremely dangerous, but Sudanese recognized and that should have been recognized at the beginning that they understand that they have to try to do this on their own. In other words, we rely on Sudanese, rely on, uh, helping each other in terms of securing roads, in terms of family members helping, in terms of not only securing access, but food and water. We are a very socially networked society and there is dis. Despite what’s going on, a great deal of, uh, fellow feeling and understanding and kindness that is part and parcel of what the revolution was about. This is why we’re so affected by what’s going on. In other words, um, absent, I understand issues of liability and concern and responsibility on the part of governments, but now I think it’s clear the Canadian government and others have said, if you can make it to this destination, We will, without any restrictions, take you. Some countries have been generous enough to take their non-citizens, as in the case of Saudi Arabia, where, believe it or not, they’ve taken Sudanese who are non-citizens of Saudi Arabia. We’d like to see that happen on the part of Canada and the United States. Whoever can get to this, uh, sanctuary should be allowed to get on those ship. Immediately. And I think that that is, uh, extremely important to make clear.

Jordan Heath Rawlings What other role might Canada play in helping with this conflict? And I ask this because I saw reports this morning that there are some Canadian special forces apparently on the ground amid the evacuation race.

Dr. Medani Well, that of course is, is to, is kind of the short term to secure and as I said, a, a shift in policy to attempt to evacuate Canadian nationals. But Canada has, uh, uh, two important roles to play. I’ve been here in many years. I teach, teach many, many Canadians, and I have many former students at in global affairs. Uh, the issue here is about humanitarianism and humanitarian aid. Canada is actually extremely well placed to do that. Uh, even I would argue in many instances, much more than the United States. Uh, Canada has a role to play in, uh, supporting the U N H C R, for example, the, uh, United Nations Relief Agency in terms of, uh, not only helping displace persons and supporting them financially and logistically, but also the refugee problem across the borders of Chad of. Uh, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Sudan. That is something that is happening. Our disappointment at the moment, frankly, is on the United Nations and the U N H C R, let’s say in Alibaba or in or in, uh, Juba or, um, German or Cairo that have not moved, uh, in the borders, and they’ve done that in the case of Iraq and. Others and other humanitarian crises. So far, the UN has not vigorously moved. They rely on the support and, uh, and force and pressure of countries like Canada to say that, you know, we will support you not only logistically and financially, but ca Canada is extremely well placed in terms of designing, uh, solutions and protection. Uh, for displaced persons and refugees. So even at the level of designing this kind of policy, Canada’s extremely well placed. Canada’s also role is in its relationship to the United States. It’s crucial. Uh, Trudo, the Prime Minister did say something about working with African unionists in his statement to try to resolve the conflict. Uh, the priority here is to aid, uh, the UN in dealing with the humanitarian crisis. The medium and long term. The only solution, of course, is a political settlement, and here Canada and the United States, Saudi Arabia and Secretary Lincoln has already made statements that he is, uh, you know, organizing a coalition of countries to try to bring, you know, not only a ceasefire that’s more permanent, but also a resolution to the conflict. Uh, there is actually no. Substitution for in the long term and the median term, uh, but uh, resolution of this, uh, conflict between these two generals. This is the country strategically placed around the Red Sea where every country that is in the region, uh, is vying for control of, uh, port there. Whether it’s China, whether it’s America, whether it’s. Um, Cherokee, whether it’s, uh, Russia and of course the volatility of the region threatens to undermine much of the interest of these countries. Certainly the United States is deeply concerned. Absolutely. Canada can play that role. I would like to see Canada actually part of that coalition this time formally to, to do that. And the Prime Minister has said he would, uh, reach out to the African Union and the African countries, which I think is crucial. And, uh, it’s a, an African, uh, organization, of course, of, of countries, but they don’t have logistics. Oftentimes, they don’t have the political will and that is required to actually have a very vigorous intervention. So I think that Canada has a very important role to pay in the humanitarian, on the humanitarian side, and that has to happen very quickly. I hope that, uh, Canadian embassy in Cairo is moving towards, uh, the borders to assist the Egyptians with this refugee crisis along with the un, for example. That would be my suggestion, and of course, it really is important for Ottawa to understand the severity of this conflict as it threatens the entire region. This is a country that borders the Red Sea. It borders the Sahel region, the Horn of Africa, and of course, east Africa and Central Africa. Seven countries border This. Country. And so I think that that is the the next step of policy that needs to be really elaborated before we get to what could happen in the conflict itself.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Geopolitically, you mentioned seven neighboring countries, uh, struggle for control of ports. Are you concerned, is there a chance that they could get involved and this conflict could escalate or spread?

Dr. Medani Absolutely. I mean, you know, the emphasis I I say here and, and you know, Canada’s role in the US and the coalition, let me emphasize that word concerted. Coalition that’s coherent is crucial. Absent that, uh, this country will devolve unfortunately even further into nothing more than a region or a country, uh, utilized by certain actors. And these generals will be utilized, uh, like proxies, which is of course what they’ve done historically. Each power neighboring and even external international actor is going to utilize, uh, their clients, so to speak, for their own interest. Further fragmenting the country. And so absent a real co concerted effort that is unified, I would argue even not just the West, but I would, um, really argue even pushing, I know it’s difficult and a challenge, but pushing China and Russia, at least in this instance, to, to participate in a coherent policy, understanding that their own interests. Uh, for the moment would be undermined with the further fragmentation and devolution of this country into a zone where you have a variety of militia roaming around not only the country, but the entire region with remnants of Islamist militancy in the country that could destabilize. The entire Sahel. And so that requires a real concerted effort, effort, uh, and unity, at least for the moment. They can dis disagree later. And also we are, uh, in anticipation of the statements coming from the United Nation with Security Council that have been very tabbit that, uh, have not been able to address, uh, yet a real, kind of strong, rigorous, uh, solution to this conflict. So thank you for that question. It’s extremely dangerous.

Jordan Heath Rawlings The last thing I wanna ask you is, what does a solution look like? These two armies are fighting tooth and nail right now. There’s, as you mentioned, you know, reluctance from Western nations and others in the UN to get directly involved. How does this end, I guess both how does this end positively and quickly and. And what does it look like if that doesn’t happen?

Dr. Medani Well, it, it’ll end like it has ended in a, in multiple conflicts in Africa, whether it’s Liberia or Sierra Leone and others. It’ll end either, you know, one of two ways. Either one of these military generals will establish complete military control and, uh, Attempt to consolidate, you know, his military rule over the country.We’ve seen that that has been absolutely impossible. It’s one of the reasons they were forced to try to negotiate. Unfortunately, the international community, you know, assumed mistakenly that you can transform, you know, victims or generals, perpetrators of these kind of human rights violations. You can, you know, transform, you know, suddenly into reformers and Democrats, which is not the case. That’s one scenario that is unlikely because of the context of this country and its history and the division between the military and the militia. The other scenario is a stalemate, and that has occurred in other parts, and this is. Where the generals realize that they have, uh, reached a stalemate and there is no option for them, but to actually accept some accept mediation in order to try to hold on to what’s left of their scarred, uh, military kind of, um, institutions and forces. So that’s a scenario that’s very likely. The very fact that in the beginning of the seven three day ceasefire that was brokered by Saudi Arabia and the US, that these two generals actually, um, committed to it, of course, that has, uh, fallen apart, is a clear indication that they’re not immune from pressure. Saudi Arabia and the UN applied, uh, America and the, and Saudi Arabia applied the necessary pressure to get their forces out. This, of course, is an indication that both generals require and need the legitimacy and support of actors, you know, in the international community. I feel strongly that, uh, this opportunity will come again and, uh, as long as pressure is applied. I agree with Senator Chris Koons in, in Washington from the Senate, who has, um, you know, suggested the threat of, uh, selective sanctions. Because these are generals that, um, get their financing from particular parties that we all know. So that kind of rigorous diplomatic intervention in the context of a stalemate and, uh, the threat of, or the implementation of selective sanctions is something that is very possible to do. And that’s what I, how I see this unfolding. Uh, following that, there must be, if you don’t mind me saying, a recognition of past mistakes. And that is the notion that, you know, these, uh, are generals who could once again bring the country back into the sphere of stability and, uh, and actually transition the country into civilian democracy must be rejected. It’s clear that two generals who are willing to destroy an entire country as a result of their own personal ambitions and interest in maintaining not only power, but vast wealth. The amassed through illicit and violent means are not in any way. You know, the kind of candidates to be Democrats overseeing the country to some kind of civilian government.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Dr. Madani, thank you so much for taking time, uh, especially right now to explain this to us and, uh, wish all the best to your family getting out and, and everybody who’s trying to get out right now.

Dr. Medani Thank you so much for covering this story. We appreciate it.

Jordan Heath-Rawlings Dr. Khalid Mustafa Madani of McGill University. That was the big story. For more, you can head to the big story podcast.ca. If you are interested in helping people fleeing Sudan, you can visit nhcr.ca to donate to the UN’s refugee agency. You can talk to us on Twitter at the Big Story Fpn. You can always suggest story ideas to us or offer some feedback on a recent episode by emailing us at Hello at the big story podcast.ca. Or of course, calling us 4 1 6 9 3 5 5 9 3 5. Leave us a voicemail with your thoughts. Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath Rawlings. We’ll talk tomorrow.