The beginning of the end for the Iranian regime?

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Jordan Heath-Rawlings There are some moments that shake the world, even if it’s not always clear. At the time, Mahsa Amini was not the first woman not even close to be arrested by Iran’s morality police over how she wore her hijab. But when she died in police custody, a 22 year old full of life snuffed out. A spark was lit. Anger sweeping across the country following the death of 22 year old Mahsa Amini. Women are seen leading the protests in Iran, taking off their headscarves, schoolgirls across the country touting the law. Some uncovering their hair, many even chanting, deaths to the dictator. Now to Iran, where the government’s violent crackdown on peaceful protest is now on its 18th day. One human rights group says at least 133 people have been killed so far. Hundreds have been arrested. Sunday, security forces besieged Tehran’s elite Sharif University, the Mountie antigovernment protests in Iran now reaching the critical oil industry. Flames and thick smoke rising overnight from the oven prison where hundreds of political prisoners are locked up. It’s the same prison housing hundreds more arrested during the past month of street protests against Iran’s hardline leadership. It has now been more than one month since Amini died and Iran is burning, literally and figuratively. If the authorities were able to stamp this out, it would have happened by now. But the brutal actions they are taking to try and regain control aren’t working and the world is watching. What makes these protests different from others that Iran has seen over the past few decades? Why now? And what is the ultimate outcome? Freedom from state imposed dress codes for women? Or freedom from the entire Iranian regime? Can these protests succeed? And what might the world do to help these brave women and the men supporting them take that last, final step? I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. This is The Big Story. Maziar Bahari is an Iranian-Canadian journalist and filmmaker. He is the editor of Iran Wire.com and he is the author of Then They Came for Me, which chronicles his arrest and his 118 day imprisonment in Iran following the controversial 2009 election. Hello, Maziar.

Maziar Bahari Thank you for having me.

Jordan I wanted to start today especially because we’re talking to you with Evin prison in Tehran. Why is that prison so notorious? It’s the one that the world has seen on fire, I believe. And what does it represent to protesters and the regime?

Maziar Bahari Well, Evin prison was built in 72 as a high security prison in Iran during the shot time. So it was seven years before the Islamic revolution. And in the beginning it was mainly for political prisoners and armed guerrillas who were fighting against the Shahs regime after the revolution. After 19 7 February 1979 revolution, many of the people who were incarcerated in Evan prison before the revolution, they took the power and they became in charge of the prison. So they knew the vulnerabilities of the prisoners. They knew what torture worked, which torture did not work. How could they interrogate more efficiently? And as a result, in 1980s, when they arrested, jailed, tortured and executed thousands of prisoners in prison, it became notorious and it became synonymous with the theocratic rule in Iran and Ayatollah Khomeini’s dictatorship. So as the regime became more, let’s say, solidified and became more established, Evin also became more established and became more notorious. It expanded its power. Evan has eight wards at the moment, and I think it has the capacity of about holding about 150 prisoners, but the real number apparently is higher. We do not know exact number, but there are some estimates that there are 250 prisoners inside Evin prison. So it’s really become synonymous with the regime’s brutality. It’s become synonymous with torture and execution. So when they take you to Edin, as they did with me in June 2009, it really stands a shiver down your spine and you know that you’re going to be intimidated, you’re going to be tortured. Evan is also designed to be impenetrable. So when you arrive in Evin prison, especially if you when you go to their solitary confinement cells, you’re denied of all your senses. The only thing that you see around you are the walls. You cannot smell anything, you cannot hear anything, and you cannot talk to anyone. So as a result, you feel really, really isolated. And that in itself is a torture.

Jordan What do we know about the fire that recently broke out there? And as you mentioned, you spent some time in that prison as well. What was it like for yourself to read and see images of that building which you said is synonymous with the regime burning?

Maziar Bahari So the first thoughts that I had when I heard about the fire was not about what I went through because I was a kind of a celebrity prisoner. People outside of the prison, people outside of Iran knew my name. It was an international campaign for my release. My wife is a British citizen. So I was in a very different situation than the majority. 99.9% of the prisoners in Evan, especially the non political prisoners in Evan who do not have anyone to campaign for them outside. And the fire that we saw last Saturday happened in Evan was in war number seven, which is for nonpolitical prisoners. And they are mainly there for either financial crimes or misdemeanours, which includes bounce checks, or for more serious crimes like armed robbery or murder. And apparently the new warden of Evin Prison is a sadistic man who is a revolutionary guard. He was in charge of another prison before, and he is committed several atrocities in that prison. And I guess the authorities were happy with his performance and they put him in charge of Evin prison. So since he became the warden of Evin Prison, he started to brutalize prisoners, especially nonpolitical prisoners, and for example, he denied them of their medicine. He forced them to do some cleaning work and things like that. So as a result, a group of prisoners revolted on Saturday and we do not know exactly what happened, but there was a fire. And as a result, up to now we know that 13 people at least died. The authorities, they have admitted that four people have died and several other people have been imprisoned. But this morning we talked to some of our sources in Iran and they told us that at least 13 prisoners have been verified dead as a result of that fire. And it could be more.

Jordan I wanted to begin with the prison because it’s one of the more recent developments and also, of course, because of your knowledge about it. But we also wanted to talk to you to get a sense of what’s happening in Iran from somebody who has good visibility into what’s going on there. I mean, it’s now been over a month since Mahsa Amini died in the custody of the morality. Please, can you take us back to when that happened, when the protests first began? Did you have any idea that more than a month later they would be getting bigger and we’d still be discussing them?

Maziar Bahari So on Wednesday, the September 1, of my colleagues heard that there is a woman in hospital in Iran because she was beaten by the morality police. And we published that story on Iranwire.com on the 14 September. Then we followed that story and we were wondering what has happened to Mahsa Amini, the 22 year old Kurdish woman who was arrested by the morality police. And unfortunately, she died on the 16 September and then the protest broke out on the 16 September. And I think her death really hits a nerve among all Iranians across the country, older Iranians or middle-aged Iranians, they could see Mahsa as their own daughter, sister, niece, cousin. She was an everyday woman. She was someone who was not political, she was not an activist. She was just an ordinary woman who came from a small town to Tehran to visit families. And as soon as she got out of the metro station in Tehran, she was arrested by the morality police. Her brother objected to the arrest, but they took her to the morality police center in Tehran, to reeducate her, which is something ridiculous to start with because Mahsa, she was 22 years old. So she was born in the year 2000. She grew up under the Islamic Republic. She went to primary school in the Islamic Republic. She went to high school in the Islamic Republic. So they had plenty of time to educate her and they took her to this education center, Wazara. And on the way there, we do not know exactly what happened, but we know that she was bitten. And then she unfortunately went to coma. And, you know, for young Iranians Mahsa, age and younger. They could see themselves as potential Mahsa. She went through what they could go through every day. They can be arrested by the morality police, they can be dismissed from their school, their work, because of their hijab. And anyone, any police officer, any Revolutionary Gulf Guard, any member of the paramilitary besiege force can harass any young woman especially or any young man they choose. And as a result, you saw this revolt, which really is a women’s revolution in Iran and started by young women. And the average age of the protesters in Iran is between the ages 16 and 22. So it’s a very young generation. This is a generation that has no idea about the ideals of the revolution. It has no idea of the eight year war in Iraq between Iraq between 1980 to 1988. They do not even have that much of a memory of the 2009 Green Movement when I was arrested. So this is a generation that really wants to have change and they want to have the change. Now, what is very interesting about this set of protests is that they do not chant for any particular specific group one way or another. They do not chant for the previous regime, they do not chant for some of the opposition group. They do not change the name of any particular personality. They have two main slogan. One is that Death to the dictator, deaths to nominate the supreme leader of Iran. And the other the main slogan is woman, life, freedom. Meaning that these young protesters, they want women to be respected in Iran, they want the sanctity of life to be respected in Iran, meaning that they do not want their lives to be in hands of these aging Molas and aging Revolutionary Guards and they want freedom.

Jordan How did the regime initially react to the protest? How has it been attempting to quell them over the past month? And is it doing any good or is it just fueling more resistance?

Maziar Bahari Well, the regime, they think that they have learnt something from the Shah demise and the way that Shah was coupled in. So when the protest, the Islamic revolution, revolution process started in September 1978. In November 1979, shah, the Shah of Iran went on television. He apologized to people and he said that he had heard the voice of the people. He made some reforms, he imprisoned some of his ministers and four months later he was toppled and Ayatollah came to power. So this regime, the Islamic regime, which is led by the people who were revolutionaries in 1979, they think that if they have any kind of reforms in the system that will lead to their demise. So they have responded to the news of Mahsa’s death as rigidly as possible. They denied any kind of involvement in her death. They fabricated some medical history for her. They forced her family to confess on television that she was ill. And then after a couple of days, her father denied that she was ill. And the family’s lawyer says that the family aren’t under pressure to confess against their will. And since then, they have brutalized people. They have killed hundreds of protesters, they have arrested thousands of young people across Iran. They have even tear gas primary schools. And we had some news of schools across Iran being raided and high school students taken into custody. The news of at least one high school student in the city of Ardabil dying as a result of beating by the basis of members. These are the paramilitary force which is a part of the Revolutionary Guard.

Jordan So they have responded the way that they know how to respond and they think that they can quell the protest by brutalizing people and they may be successful this time around. I don’t know how long these protests are going to last. The young, brave protesters, they have surprised everyone with their energy and their zeal for change. But the regime is a very powerful regime and they might be able to stop this protest for a short time, but then something like Master’s death can happen in two months time, in one year time. And again, people come to the streets. They have stopped having spectators in football matches. In one month’s time, Iranian football team will take part in the Football World Cup in Qatar and people will get around. So the regime has to worry about that. And they’re going to spend all their resources in order to establish what they call security. And we know from history that when regimes dedicate all their resources to fight against their own people, they eventually fall. We had the military dictatorship in Poland in 1081. There was a military rule and it just took eight years for the Polish dictatorship to fall. I don’t think it’s going to take eight years for the Islamic Republic to fall. I’m not sure what is going to happen to this setup process. But this is the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic as we know it, as that takes shape.

Jordan What has the global community done in response to the crackdowns from the regime? I know here in Canada, we saw the government classified the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, ban its members from entering our country. Is that enough? Are there other things the global community should be doing to perhaps hastened the downfall of this regime?

Maziar Bahari Oh, I don’t think that there is such a thing as global community because if you have China and Russia as part of the global community, they are working with the Iranian people to suppress Iranians and Iranians, of course, helping Russians with their drones to fight against the Ukrainian people. But I think the Western democracies and democratic people around the world, they can get to be in touch with their representatives. They can think about establishing means of communication for Iranians. One of the main things that the Iranians need at the moment is a free flow of information. Whether that can happen with VPNs, the virtual networks, or it can happen with satellite technology. The way that Elon Musk and Starlink, they are developing the satellite technology. I think that is one of the main needs. At the same time, there has to be targeted sanctions against people who have been brutalized Iranians. And from what we know, many of the regime insiders, they are sending their money and they’re sending their children outside. Canada is one of the main destinations for many of these people. And I don’t think that the Canadian government has done a very good job monitoring the dirty money coming from Iran into Canada. There are, if you talk to any Iranian in front of Vancouver, Montreal or Calgary, they tell you that they know so many regime insiders who are investing in real estate, they are buying businesses, and I’m sure that the Canadian government knows that as well. But I don’t think that they had the will to fight against them. There’s a law that Canada has also signed, a magnitude law that named after a Russian lawyer who was killed by Putin. And it initially started as a way to curb the ability of the Russian oligarchs to invest their dirty money outside of Russia. But it also now includes Iran and many and some other countries. So I think there’s a lot that can be done and I think to shuttle solidarity for citizens of democratic countries as well, that’s very important. And I think the Iranian community in the diaspora, they have to learn that they are living in democracies and they have the right to vote and they have the right to demonstrate. We saw a big demonstration of Iranian diaspora all around the world. 600 people came to the street in Toronto two weeks ago and there will be another big demonstration on the 22 October in Berlin. So I think those are all very necessary steps, but I think the Canadian governments and other Western democracies, they should just put their money where their mouth is. And if they’re imposing sanctions, they have to really follow it through with enough bureaucrats, with enough willpower in order to create change. Otherwise just talking in the parliament and condemning things for that individual or groups of people is not going to work.

Jordan As this continues, and maybe even over the past few weeks, how difficult has it been? You mentioned this a minute ago, just to get accurate information on the ground in various places in Iran, because I know these protests are in many cities across the country. Your colleagues in Iran wire, how have they been doing? Is it dangerous to report? And how strictly is the regime cracking down on trying to keep information in the country?

Maziar Bahari It’s been very difficult. It’s been extremely difficult. Iran, traditionally, since the beginning of the revolution, even before the revolution, has been one of the biggest jailers of journalists around the world. But in the last one month, at least 50 journalists, professional journalists, have been imprisoned in Iran. And the regime, after the green movement in 2009, has made information, as a concept, an enemy of the state. So as my interrogator articulated, spies gather information and sell information in order to make a living. Journalist gather information and sell information in order to make a living. So journalists are spies. So that’s a very simple logic that permeates through the regime, and that’s the regard to journalists. And as a result, they have tried to curb the free flow of information in any which way they can. To start with, as soon as the protest started, they called different editors and publishers of different publications and websites, telling them not to publish anything about masa. Then they started to arrest several journalists. They interrogated several journalists, and they did not detain or arrest them. And they have narrowed the internet bandwidth in many places. And in some places, people do not even have access to landline in many cases, in order not to be able to send. And this all results in loss of income for the state itself. In 2019, the state shut down the internet for three days. And according to some estimates, Iran lost $1.4 billion as a result of internet shutdown. And this has happened in the past. In one month, no one knows what is the cost to the state itself and to people. And people must have lost billions of dollars in their businesses, which have been on instagram. On WhatsApp? There are at least about 400 Iranians who have businesses on instagram. They’re selling different things, lots all around the world, and they’re losing a lot of money because of that. The state is doing it, but they are doing all that because they think that it’s necessary to save the system to salvage the islamic republic.

Jordan The last thing I want to ask you about is what happens next? I know you said this is the beginning of the end for this regime. What does that look like? I guess I’m wondering, like, is there a tipping point? At which point it becomes impossible for the regime to stay in power? And what would that even look like compared to what we see on the streets right now? Which obviously is an impressive display of protest.

Maziar Bahari So I’m going to tell you that I do not know. I have been surprised by what has happened so far. I did not expect these protests to last this long. I did not have enough trust, maybe in young people of Iran. I did not maybe have enough knowledge about young people of Iran to know that they could persist for such a long time. And I can assure you that whoever tells you something with certainty is bullshitting you. No one knows what is going to happen in Iran in the near future. We have all been surprised. And when you talk to people inside Iran as well as we do on a regular basis, I was talking to a couple of friends of mine half an hour before this conversation, and they were both surprised. And they were telling me that even the young people themselves, they’re surprised by the solidarity shown among people. So we do not know what is going to happen, but we know that the situation is not tenable. The situation is going to change. Whether that change comes within a few weeks, within a few months or years, we do not know. But this is the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Jordan Maziar, thank you so much for this, and I’m glad you’re safe. And I hope your team at Iran Wire stays safe and gets the information out.

Maziar Bahari Thank you.

Jordan Maziar Bahari, an Iranian Canadian journalist and filmmaker and editor of IranWire.com. That was the big story. You can find more at thebigstory podcast CA. You can obviously send us some feedback, suggest some topics. I want to give a huge thank you to the people who suggested that we cover Iran. We often try to keep our stories Canadian. However, sometimes, as with the war in Ukraine, one story impacts the entire world. You can find The Big Story wherever you get your podcasts. You can read it and review it when you do. Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. We’ll talk tomorrow.