Philippe J. Fournier sees a lot of polls. Actually, he sees all of the polls. And there aren't many good ones for Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats these days. Is the NDP's fall severe enough to pose a threat to their party status? What's happened to the party that formed the official opposition not that long ago?
We also discuss everything Fournier's models say about the state of the race before the writ drops: Does it matter if the Liberals get completely wiped out in the prairies? Did the revival of the SNC-Lavalin scandal move the needle? In a model that consistently predicts a minority government, who stands to hold the balance of power? And will Philippe get any sleep between now and November?