As an election looms, will climate policy be an issue in Ontario?

Jordan Every single provincial government in Canada needs an emissions plan. Seriously, not having one is no longer an option. If a province doesn’t, the federal government simply gives them one. However, there is nothing to specify how detailed that plan needs to be, how reliable, how believable. So much like me trying to get away with not reading the book for a book report, the most important thing is to just hand something in that looks like you did the work. Which brings us to Ontario and its climate situation. Nobody would consider Premier Doug Ford a champion of environmentalists. He’s always been more of a car and highway kind of guy. That’s who he is

Doug Ford Clip …right now, our 400 series highways are clogged with gridlock…

…more proof that our government is on the right track putting shovels in the ground for new highways…

Jordan So it shouldn’t shock you that the Ontario government’s latest climate plan is not so much of a plan as… look, I’m not criticizing here. They actually say themselves that we should not call this latest document a plan. So here’s the bigger problem, though. Beyond Doug Ford, is there any credible alternative in Ontario with a good climate plan? This episode is not intended just as a critique of the Progressive Conservatives. It’s an attempt to ask a question. With everything happening right now in Canada, in Ontario, in the everyday lives of its citizens, from a pandemic to a housing crisis to rapid inflation of everyday goods, has climate fallen by the wayside as an issue, with an election looming? And what happens to us if it does?

I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. This is The Big Story. Fatima Syed is an Ontario reporter with the Narwhal. She is also the host of The Backbench, an excellent politics podcast, and she is a frequent guest and occasional host on this podcast. Fatima, it’s lovely to talk to you.

Fatima Syed Hi, Jordan. It’s nice to be back.

Jordan It is lovely to have you back. And you are doing some excellent work on the climate beat.

Fatima Syed I mean, it’s the only beat that I care about right now.

Jordan That must leave you distressed a lot of the time.

Fatima Syed Oh, yeah. It’s a roller coaster of emotions out here, Jordan.

Jordan Well, today we’re going to talk about the very latest climate plan, emissions commitment, whatever you want to call it, in Ontario on the eve of an election campaign.

Fatima Syed I’m very excited. I have so many rants about this climate plan, which the government says is not a plan, but it looks like a plan and acts like a plan. So is it a plan? Listeners be the judge.

Jordan Okay, well, let’s start with that, because the understanding that I have is this is something that the government of Ontario was required to produce for the federal government. How does that work and why were they required to do that?

Fatima Syed Okay, so do you remember the carbon price way back when it was being pitched by the federal government?

Jordan Do I remember the carbon price? Yeah, I think we did 15 episodes on it. And also I don’t think certain politicians have shut up about it since then.

Fatima Syed Well, the legislation that put the carbon price into existence requires provinces to either show that they have their own carbon pricing plan in place in their jurisdiction for both industry and consumers that meets the federal targets, meets the commitments Canada has made on the international stage, to the world and at home. If provinces don’t have a plan that meets the federal targets and the federal benchmark, then Ottawa would step in and impose their own carbon price, which is what happened way back when, when Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan didn’t have a plan and the carbon tax was imposed and they went to the Supreme Court and all of that happened.

Jordan That’s like me with my Toddler, right? Like, do you want to choose or do you want me to do it for you?

Fatima Syed Exactly. Someone described it really eloquently to me as a choose your own climate adventure model, where provinces have to either choose to be under the federal government’s carbon price or put up an equally strong, equally detailed, equally like impactful plan by themselves. And for the longest time, Ontario had not had anything. But since January, Ontario has been making moves in this space. So in January, they applied a carbon pricing plan. Essentially, it kind of functions like cap and trade, if you remember that, I was on the show to talk about that, which basically puts a price on pollution created by industry and forces them to pay if they exceed that or buy permits to exceed that level of pollution. So they applied this in the beginning of January this year.

Now, this is also the year where they have to provide their updated plans to the federal government for review. And that’s what brings us here today. Ontario released what they’re calling a forecast, and they have told me in explicit terms that it is not a plan. But it gives you a sense of how this provincial government, which is, as you said, on the heels of an election, is thinking about emissions reductions and what kind of places it’s seeking them.

Jordan Okay. So before we get to what’s in… I almost called it a plan. The plan that’s not a plan. Right now is a really interesting time. We talked about the election that’s coming up. And also this release comes in the wake of IPCC reports, which we’ve also covered on the show, which were bad. I don’t know another way to put it. So maybe could you set the context in which this is being released? Is there a lot of pressure on the government right now? What have they previously promised or committed to? And how does this not a plan further that?

Fatima Syed So there is immense amounts of pressure on all governments to prove that they are acting quickly and effectively. Since the Ontario government was elected alone, and I’m going to focus on them because we’re talking about their plan, which is not a plan. They have only put out one climate plan. That was the 2018 made in Ontario plan. Since that document was released, we’ve had three IPCC reports, each one with more harrowing statistics of the consequences of inaction, of ineffective action. And we’ve also had a lot of audits and scrutiny of the federal government’s plan. Just this week, Jordan, Canada’s environment auditor general released a series of reports that found that even the federal government is acting slowly, not thoughtfully enough, and with unreasonable expectations. And one of the findings of the Canadian auditor general was that the federal government isn’t pushing hard enough on provinces to meet the targets and benchmarks needed for Canada to meet its goals.

And the reason I bring that up is because the plan that Doug Ford put out is almost exactly the same as the plan his government put out in 2018. The targets have not changed, so they’re still aiming for 30% reductions below 2005 levels. To put that in context, the IPCC report is urging governments to think about 50, 60% reductions. The federal government themselves have set out 40% to 45% reductions. Ontario is refusing to budge from that 30% level. And if that doesn’t make you sort of pause and wonder on the effectiveness of Ontario’s climate approach, their forecast excludes a lot of policies that would increase emissions in the province. Think of all the highways that Doug Ford has been proposing over the last year or so. Think of all the mining activities that he’s been proposing. These are policies that will increase emissions, and they are not included in this plan.

And then the third caveat is that there were things in the 2018 plan that have just disappeared, just vanished with no explanation. In 2018, the government proposed something called the Ontario Carbon Trust. So this was a 400 million dollar fund to encourage private investment in clean technologies. So the idea was that if we set up this pool of money and give it to companies with the best emissions reductions technology proposals, we’ll meet our targets. This trust was never set up, like ever, with no explanation. I’ve asked the government about it. They don’t really tell me what happened. It was the foundation of the 2018 climate plan. We’re now four years later, and it’s not in their new forecast.

Jordan That’s a lot that’s not in the new forecast. Fatima, what is in the new forecast?

Fatima Syed So the Ontario government is betting on their carbon pricing program for industry, which they’ve called the emissions performance standards. This is basically, like I said earlier, it functions like cap and trade. They’ve set up like a benchmark. And industries have to pollute to that extent, and they can’t pollute more than that and have to be penalized. I will add that I am assuming this is how it works, as is the case, and you’ll hear this throughout this conversation that we’re having, Jordan, there are not many details about this program. All we know for certain is that it was set up in January, that it has been applied, that industries are being asked to adhere to it. How it’s functioning, whether it’s being effective in reducing industries emissions, is a big question mark. But the forecast that they’ve put out, which is two and a half pages long, by the way.

Jordan Do you get points for succinctness in the climate policy area?

Fatima Syed I mean, you could, but not in this one. This one is two and a half pages long for just a serious lack of detail and explanation on how some of the policies that are being proposed are working. To go back to the emissions performance standards though, Ontario’s biggest emitters are the steel industry. By far, the steel industry is the biggest polluter in this province. And the government is hoping that the emissions performance standards as it applies to them will help reduce their emissions, as will the fact that they are currently transitioning away from a coal burning furnace to something more electric and clean. That’s not going to happen until 2025, though. So everything in this forecast is working very slowly. And the policy that they’ve bet most of their cards on doesn’t really go into effect until many, many years later, which makes me question how effective this is. Other things in the program are very minor. They won’t really have too much of an impact in reducing emissions in the province. And they include things like setting up transit, reducing food waste, which is really, really marginal in terms of reducing emissions, and that’s it.

Jordan So there wasn’t a whole lot in the so called forecast, but Ontario released its 2022 budget on Thursday. What did they say about climate change in there?

Fatima Syed Nothing is the short answer. This is actually the first budget this government has put out without a dedicated environment chapter, which you can interpret how you will, but to me suggests that they sort of veered away from even trying to invest in that file. The bulk of the budget focuses on electric vehicles and critical mineral mining to create an electric battery market. There’s one mention of emissions reduction in the entire budget, and it’s like a throwaway comment. There’s one mention of the phrase climate change, and it’s in some blurb about a fund that will help communities. So it sort of fits in with the government’s track record, where we see them talk a big talk sometimes when they’re asked about climate, but their actions don’t follow suit. And yesterday the Minister in the legislature said that we’re proving you can tackle climate change without a carbon tax. That was his only line in his speech about the environment. And I thought that was so telling because that’s literally the first thing the government did when it took office. And if that’s the only thing that they keep coming back to, it sort of tells you all you need to know about the government’s priorities on this file.

Jordan Why aren’t there more details? We mentioned we’re heading into an election. Climate is, or at least I hope will be one of the biggest issues on the campaign. Certainly it’s an issue millions of Ontarians care about. Why aren’t they touting their work on this file? Why aren’t they putting forward like we’re doing X, Y, and Z? I am assuming we’re about to hear some serious climate policy from the NDP and the Liberals, if for no other reason than because they think it’s an issue they can bludgeon and Doug Ford with. Where is the detail on this?

Fatima Syed Oh, man, where do I even start? Look, I’m on the outside looking in, and I am taking a full survey of everything this government has done that could impact emissions and the state of the natural world in this province. The fact is that the government hasn’t really done much on the environment file. They will say that they have created a robust electric vehicle policy. The problem is that it’s not picking up fast enough. So any sort of benefits that kind of policy might have we won’t see for many years. And all those benefits are also canceled out by the government’s plans to build more highways, which will put more cars on the road anyway. And in the interim, those cars will be polluting cars, cars that depend on fossil fuels.

One of the main things this government loves saying is that Ontario has reduced the most amount of emissions in Canada. Yes, that’s true. But it’s not because of anything this government has done. It’s because of the coal phase out that happened under the previous Liberal government. And this government is just taking credit for that. You see it in this new plan that is not a plan as well, where they tout the coal phase out as the main reason why Ontario is doing so well.

I’ve been thinking a lot about this, and I feel like we’ve sort of settled into this new political climate routine where as long as the government can point to a few policies that are, quote, unquote, good for the environment, they’ve done their job. Doesn’t matter if they can’t offer details. It doesn’t matter how effective it is. The fact that they can point to something and say, no, we’ve done our part. Here’s what this province has done. Here’s what we’ve proposed, that’s it. Climate change isn’t stopping. I am personally tired of governments not taking it seriously enough to engage with it.

And you talked about the Liberals and the NDP, and perhaps this is their moment to step in and fill this void. And I want to remind listeners it is a void. Since getting into office, the Doug Ford government has canceled cap and trade. They removed electric vehicle charging stations, even though they’re now back to wanting electric vehicles. So that’s a whole thing to wrap our heads around. They have watered down endangered species law, they have fast track development across the province, increasing sprawl, which will increase emissions. They’ve invested in roads and drivers. They’ve done very little transit improvements in the short term that we need. And we have a whole list on The Narwhal that you can consult, with like 25 items. The Liberals and NDP are not prepared to fill this void. And I say that having read the NDP plan, which is the only major party to release a climate plan so far, because even their plan isn’t based on realistic assumptions of what the province needs to do and how it can achieve them. And the Liberals don’t even have a climate plan.

Jordan What is the NDP plan based on then, if not that?

Fatima Syed The NDP plan wants to reverse time. So they want to put back the cap and trade program, they want to put back electric vehicle charging stations, they want to put back a green building code that Doug Ford’s government removed. And the problem with reversing time is that it ignores the fact that we have progressed so much in the climate discourse since 2018 when all of that was removed. We now have data from three IPCC reports that shows how much more we need to be doing and how much more quickly we need to be acting. And as much as the NDP has very optimistically told me that it’s easy to put back something that was removed, they haven’t really sold me on the fact that they will put it back with more strength and more vigor and do so in a way that will ensure we reduce emissions quickly and protect the natural environment with more strength.

Jordan In your experience covering this for as many years as you have, is there a difference between parties and elections that treat climate as an issue with which to one up their competition and hopefully garner some more votes and parties that treat it as a serious policy issue that we actually have to engage with and do more than people would probably like in order to succeed? Because to me, a lot of elections right now feel like, who can promise the most stuff with the least pain for people on the climate file?

Fatima Syed Having seen the past few elections, both on the federal and provincial level, I feel like climate is just a box they all want to tick and not take seriously because they know that it’s going to cost money. They know that it’s going to cost time and energy that doesn’t fit well into their political goals. But I think that society has changed, or at least I hope society has changed and really cares about climate issues right now. And we’ve seen a burgeoning strengthening movement that doesn’t just include young people, it’s everyone. It’s Indigenous Peoples, it’s communities of color, it’s grandparents and parents. I’ve seen greater climate interest, and because of that pressure, I think parties have to consider putting climate change in their platforms.

As we get closer and closer to this election. The one thing I would love for listeners to keep in mind is that this government has never answered any of my questions about the climate file in a way that makes sense. If you read my story on their new emissions reduction plan on the Narwhal, you will see the painstaking efforts I made just to simply understand their approach, not even to hold them accountable, just to understand better what they’re thinking here. I asked the Minister of Environment for an interview, didn’t get one. I asked for a tech briefing, which is the Ministry of Environment has experts that reporters can talk to just to understand the nuts and bolts of policies, which are often so complicated. You don’t quote them, but it’s to help reporters explain things better. I asked for that tech briefing, didn’t get it. Instead, I had to communicate via email. And the answers I got were so vague, so broad, and also so confusing and so indirect.

So this government has struggled to communicate on climate, and that’s really frustrating at a time when we need governments to be able to communicate on climate, not just about policies, but about approach, about thinking, about just where their heads at, when they think about emissions reductions. Who are they speaking to, who are they collaborating with, and so forth. So voters should ask candidates when they come to the door about climate and really pick apart their answers and see if they’re actually answering the question, because in my experience, they have not.

The problem is that it stops at the proposal and there’s no follow through in a way where things get better. I think voters need to be asking really tough questions of people who decide to run for office. Not just what are you going to do for the climate, but how are you going to protect the environment in the next five years, not in the next eight to ten, but literally in the next five years of their term or four years of their term. That’s really important because if you can’t take office from day one and hit the ground running on an issue that has already run away so far from our abilities and our imaginations, then what is the point of electing you? As cynical as that sounds, we’re dealing with, when Doug Ford took office, the very first thing he did was cancel cap and trade. That should be a lesson to Ontario voters that whoever they elect next, there is a very high chance that the first thing they do in office could affect our world as we know it for the next four to 100 years.

Jordan This has been an excellent way to kick off our coverage of the Ontario election and to talk about climate more broadly. The last thing I want to ask you and you touched on it a little bit. We’re hoping this will be a major campaign issue. And you’re saying you’re seeing more and more people caring about what the actual policy is, which is great. One of the things that I worry about, and I wonder if you’re worried about it as someone who knows how urgent the situation is, is if the other very real and immediate issues that we are grappling with right now at a level and intensity with which I don’t think we’ve seen in a while. And here I’m talking about housing, which is an issue almost every day, income inequality, inflation, and the cost of living, all of which seem to be kind of turning into crises here. I wonder if climate will still be able to rise near to the top of that issue list, with so many things that are crushing people daily like right in front of us.

Fatima Syed Myy answer is multifaceted. First, I think it’s the responsibilities of our elected officials to set the priorities and recognize the fact that inaction on climate change will actually cost us more down the line. We’re seeing the cost of fuel right now and we’re stressed out. And I get it like I’m a driver. I’m stressed out every time I have to fill my car with gas. But I also know that if we don’t figure this out soon and start acting quickly and effectively, and I keep using those words because those are the words that the IPCC report has given us time and again. But if we don’t do that, forget the cost of gas, like the cost of breathing is going to be ridiculous down the line. We talk about the cost of housing. Let’s build more houses, like immediately so that everyone can own a house. Sure, that sounds all good, but I also know that if we increase sprawl and we build more highways so that everyone can access all the areas that they need to access because of that sprawl, that’s going to increase emissions, and that’s going to make the cost of living, literally like the cost of living as a human being in Ontario’s environment more expensive down the line.

So there is a responsibility that our elected officials have to draw those connections and realize that issues don’t just stop at one problem, that they are all interconnected. And I know how idealistic I sound, but we live in such a complicated world, Jordan, and if someone as young as me can see that it’s not just a matter of tackling this one thing and ignoring the rest, then why can’t our elected officials see it that way? And I think that there’s also an onus on voters to realize all of that as well. As easy as it is to focus on the short term problems, climate change has been sort of a constantly growing element in our lives and people often forget the consequences. Think of the wildfires in Alberta. People lost their homes and the cost to their lives was so great. Every time there’s a flood, there’s a threat to our lives. Every time there’s a heat wave, there’s a threat to our lives. And we’re not connecting the dots. We’re not connecting the dots in a way where we address all the facets.

I hope that the pandemic… you know, there was this great moment during the pandemic where everyone was like, well, if we can come together and address this huge health crisis, we can do this for the climate crisis too. And doctors were leading that conversation because doctors realized that they didn’t have the capacity to deal with a crisis of the pandemic’s magnitude. So they needed to figure out how to address breathing problems or heat wave problems from climate change events. That sort of all disappeared. I hate the fact that I have to keep reminding people of it, but I’d love for people to keep that in mind come election day or even throughout the Democratic process. Because it doesn’t stop at one policy or one document that the government puts out. Everything is so interconnected when it comes to how we protect and preserve and strengthen the world around us. Climate policy isn’t a silo. It’s connected to housing. It’s connected to driving. It’s connected to education and health care. And it would behoove us to remember that as we near this election campaign.

Jordan I’ve been accused in the past of ending climate episodes on depressing notes. So I’m not going to do that this time. And instead I’m just going to say I am so glad that we have journalists like you explaining this policy to us and advocating for fast and direct action. Thanks, Fatima.

Fatima Syed Thanks so much, Jordan.

Jordan Fatima Syed reporting on climate in the Narwhal.

That was The Big Story. For more from us, head to thebigstorypodcast.ca, find us on Twitter at @TheBigStoryFPN. Talk to us anytime via email, Hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca [click here!] and hit us up in your favourite podcast player. Please choose one that lets you rate and review just because it feeds our ego. I don’t care if it’s a good user experience for you, I want the stars.

Thank you for listening. I’m Jordan Heath-Rawlings. We’ll talk tomorrow.

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