Is this the climate tipping point?

CLIP You are listening to a Frequency Podcast network production.

Jordan Heath Rawlings So, how have things been where you live? Are they hot? I’m gonna guess they’ve been hot.

CLIP Global temperatures keep breaking records this week, highlighting the extremity of this year’s summer in the Northern hemisphere. It is extreme.

CLIP The amount of sea ice surround Antarctica is now at the lowest levels ever recorded at the end of June.

CLIP The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported this week that ocean surface temperatures spiked in April and May to the highest levels recorded since the 1950s. This could have dangerous consequences.

CLIP Canada’s wildfire season is now officially the worst ever recorded. That’s only going to get worse as peak fire season continues.

Jordan Heath Rawlings The past several weeks have seen record breaking, well basically record breaking everything to do with climate. From temperatures to sea ice, to warm waters, fires and heat domes. Things out there not great. But listen, we wouldn’t be doing another climate episode just to tell you that. The earth, as you know, has been steadily warming. So some degree of record breaking is to be expected, at least until we turn this thing around. No, the reason these records are news, is because they are outliers. Because experts who have watched the gradual increase of these indicators for years are warning us that the increases aren’t gradual anymore. They are jumping off the charts in ways that simply weren’t expected to happen yet. The warning lights, in other words, are blinking red and we seriously may not know what we’re in for over the years to come. Our current predictions dire as they are, might not be good enough. So have we reached a climate tipping point? Is this the beginning of whatever comes next? And if it is, will it be enough to shock us into pushing harder to save ourselves?

I’m Jordan Heath Rawlings. This is The Big Story. Catherine Abreu is the founder and executive director of Destination Zero. She’s also a member of Canada’s Net Zero advisory body. Hello, Cat.

Catherine Abreu Hi, how are ya?

Jordan Heath Rawlings I’m a little scared these days. Are you scared?

Catherine Abreu Yeah, I’m definitely feeling the apocalyptic vibes of, of this summer right now. For sure.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Okay. Well, let’s talk a little bit about, before we get to how bad it is and what, if anything we can do about it, let’s talk a little bit about what those vibes are. It’s reported on Monday that that was the hottest day ever recorded, and then Tuesday broke that record. Umm, not sure yet if Wednesday broke that one, but when we talk about like global temperature records, what does that actually mean?

Catherine Abreu So what we’re talking about is the global average temperature. This is taking into account all the regions of the planet, right? So we’re looking at the average temperatures across the Northern hemisphere as well as the southern hemisphere. On Tuesday average, global temperatures were 17.18 degrees Celsius. That broke the previous record, which was the day before record of 17 degrees Celsius. And prior to that, the record was set in 2016, just above 16 degrees Celsius. So that’s the level of warming that we’re talking of, warmth that we’re talking about around the world. And for comparison, the average global temperature that we should be at, where we were at for most of the 20th century, for instance, is around 14 degrees Celsius. And even that 20th century average is actually higher than it used to be because of course we started seeing some climate change last, last decade or last century, I should say.

Jordan Heath Rawlings I kind of mentioned this in the introduction, but you know, it’s one thing to sort of break a record here and there, as the world warms and, and we’ve known for decades that that’s what it’s doing. You know, maybe that’s to be expected. Were you surprised to see those headlines in particular?

Catherine Abreu To be honest, I am not surprised to see those headlines. We know that 10 of the warmest years in the historical record have all occurred since 2010. So, you know, it’s not surprising that here we are in 2023, experiencing the warmest days that we’ve ever seen on the planet. And maybe let’s, let’s unpack this word ever. What are we, what are we talking about here. When we say ever we mean this planet has not seen temperatures this high since the Eemian period, which was about 120,000 years ago. So really throughout the whole course of our species, as we know it currently, we have not seen temperatures this warm on this planet. So the climate is continuing to warm. Governments are continuing to fail to take the level of action that’s required. And fossil fuel companies are continuing to reap insane profits as they dig oil and gas and coal out of the ground.

Jordan Heath Rawlings So there are records and then there are records. And what I mean by that is like what you just described, you know, the planet continuing to warm, our actions being inadequate, oil and gas companies continuing to profit. That’s an episode we, we could have and have made, numerous times over the course of this podcast’s life. But recently, over the past couple of weeks, a lot of experts have been saying things like, all the warning lights are blinking red, and we may have passed the tipping point. So what’s been happening recently? What have we been seeing that sort of makes this more urgent than it may have been even six months or a year ago?

Catherine Abreu So I think we’re, you know, what we’re all maybe realizing is the level of urgency that we have all actually been in for, for quite a number of years now. So I, I would, I would say that the actual urgency hasn’t increased. We have been experiencing this level of urgency for quite a while, but people’s experience of the urgency, is very felt. And I think a big part of why that is, is because this is happening everywhere all at once. So I should say that climate change is definitely a huge forcer of this extreme heat wave that we’re seeing around the globe. it’s compounded by the fact that we’re in an El Nino year, and so we are experiencing the escalating impacts that come when climate change is the, the impacts of climate change are, are enforced by other naturally occurring events. And, and this is part of why scientists are really ringing the bell as well, because they’re realizing that while many of our models have predicted some of the impacts that we are seeing all around the world right now, we’re also seeing some potential for ecological collapse happening much faster than those models predicted. And why that is is because of this compounding effect. Because we’re seeing how much climate change is being exacerbated when other crises, ecological crises, or other naturally occurring events really emphasize the impacts, the ongoing impacts of a warming world.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Can you give me a couple of examples of, what that would look like, just in terms of various things that we measure that all of a sudden are like, oh boy, this is picking up steam.

Catherine Abreu Yeah, so, so this is, this is the part of the question, right? So if we, if we think about the Amazon, there have been predictions about the potential for us to lose much of the Amazon to forest fires and you know, the Amazon, of course, the lungs of our planet. You know, Such a huge contributor to the very air that we all breathe every day. Previous studies that have looked explicitly or that have looked exclusively at impacts from climate change on on the Amazon rainforest have suggested that we might see risks of runaway forest fires kind of taking away the majority of Amazon at about four degrees of warming. But scientists are now saying that if they take into account the compounding effects of deforestation, of water stress and degradation, of pollution of water sources from mining and other polluting industry industrial activities, then the breakdown of the Amazon comes a lot faster. Comes much sooner than that four degrees of warming and actually maybe starts to be a potential in the very near reality. And this is what scientists refer to as tipping points, places that we can’t really come back from. And we’re seeing that we might be approaching some of those tipping points much faster than originally planned.

Jordan Heath Rawlings One of the other, reports I’ve seen has to do with kind of the average ocean temperature, I guess. And, and I can describe it for those who are listening and who haven’t seen it, because it’s a kind of graph that, that we’ve seen for a lot of climate related things recently, which is like year over year you can see the temperatures like slowly inching up, you know, and maybe there’s a down year here or an up year here, but you know, the overall total is trending up. And then you look at this year’s and it’s like, half an inch above everything. And it feels like this is just like a giant step towards whatever disaster we’re trying to avoid here.

Catherine Abreu That’s right. And, and this is what this concept of tipping points is meant to describe. So when we look into climate science, a tipping point is kind of this critical threshold that when we cross it, There are irreversible changes that are happening not just to the climate system, but also to human societies and and other ecological systems. So these are things that we can’t come back from. So for instance, if we get to a place where most coral reefs have died off, there’s no way of bringing those coral reefs back. Tipping points are also examples of catastrophic events that if they occur will be drivers of cascading effects. So there’ll be things that actually make the momentum behind climate change even worse. And an example of that is the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. You know, scientists have predicted that the Greenland ice sheet might reach the catastrophic melting point in the, in the very near future. Now it takes, it will take a millennia, of course, for that ice sheet to actually melt. But if we go past that tipping point, there’s no way to stop the melting of that ice sheet. And underneath that ice sheet, there’s a bunch of methane that gets released into the atmosphere. And we’ve all heard about how much of a powerful climate change force or methane is, so you see those cascading effects coming from that kind of tipping point. And I would say right here at home we have an example of a of a, cascading tipping point in the Boreal forest. And again, we’re very close to reaching a place where the permafrost in the boreal forest just goes away forever. And we can, I think all, imagine the profound impacts that that will have on communities and other ecological systems in the north that depend on that permafrost. So, you know, we’re getting to this place now where we’re starting to understand that the world has changed, is changing in some ways that we’re not going to be able to come back from. Business as usual or, or getting back to normal is an increasingly vanishing proposal.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Well, you and I have spoken before about, you know, the need to push as hard as we can to keep warming to one and a half degrees, and it feels like we’re racing past that. And I guess what I’m trying to ask, just in terms of all these numbers that we’re seeing in these records we’re breaking is like at what point do we have to start to throw out some of the predictions we made around 1.5 or two degrees? Because we’re seeing so many anomalies and so many of these cascading effects that you’re talking about.

Catherine Abreu So this is a really critical question, and I think a lot of folks are asking themselves this, and we’re starting to see pieces where climate scientists are saying 1.5 degrees is no longer possible. Let’s start thinking about, you know, warming that goes beyond 1.5. It is really important that we do that thinking because, as I’ve said, we’ve already locked in so many impacts and we know that those impacts will escalate even if we stopped somehow, you know, clawed back all global emissions tomorrow. The impacts that we’ve locked in would be continuing to affect us and the non-human world for decades to come. So we need to be thinking about how to address those impacts. Absolutely. But the question of do we just give up hope, on keeping average global warming as low as we possibly can, keeping it as close as possible to the levels that we know we need to keep warming at in order to avoid some of those most catastrophic tipping points. We can’t afford to give up that battle. What we can say is, okay, we might be in a position where we’ve now locked in an overshoot. You know, because of the failure of government action, because of the, the wealth and influence of the fossil fuel industry, we probably will push past 1.5 degrees of warming. But we have the ability, if we plan and act now to put in place the solutions that will be able to claw back from that overshoot. So even if we get to 1.7 degrees of warming, if we have the right plans in place to have been restoring our ecosystems and building up our carbon sinks. Then as those carbon sinks grow, you know, in between 2050 and 2100 for instance, then they start to claw back some of that carbon pollution and hopefully lower some of those global temperatures closer to 1.5 degrees Celsius. So that’s kind of what we’re fighting for now is. Seeing that it’s likely that we’re going to overshoot 1.5 degrees. How do we make sure we deal with the impacts from climate change that we’ve already baked in. And how do we continue to grow our efforts to cut climate pollution so that we’re able to stay as close to that 1.5 threshold as we possibly can and come back from an overshoot as quickly as we can.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Let’s talk about how we engage people in that fight then, because it really feels to me like this is a pretty critical time for that. I think this summer and yeah, maybe I’m speaking only for people in Southern Ontario, but also parts of Quebec and certainly Western New York and and other places that have not really dealt so hard with the smoke from forest fires before. And it’s a sign that is right in your face of just how the world is changing and it feels like, speaking of tipping points I guess, it feels like the average person seeing all this has two options and one is to get like mad as hell and fight for it, and the other one is to be like, shit, it’s already here and give up. How do we navigate that battle?

Catherine Abreu I guess I just wanna, you know, reach out to all of the listeners that are, hearing this conversation and say, the choice to give up, is not a choice that’s available to us. We all have people we love, we all have places we love. And in 2023, loving those people and loving those places means taking the threat of climate change seriously and doing everything we can to confront that threat. And I think a lot of people are feeling that pretty deeply. The hopelessness comes in when we ask ourselves, how do we confront that threat, the power of the status quo, of the incumbents, who, you know, make their billions in this current scenario that doesn’t work for most people or the planet. How do we counter the power and influence of those people who are trying to hold us back from doing what we know needs to be done? That’s the question that we need to be asking ourselves. You and I have been chatting about climate change for years at this point, Jordan. I think in every conversation we have, I mentioned that the key thing we really have to do is stop producing and burning fossil fuels. You know, we’re, we’re in a place where that is clearer than ever and where the, you know, I think villainous quality of the fossil fuel industry that made enormous profits last year that, you know, doubled the record breaking profits of any year prior. The oil and gas, the five largest oil and gas majors made 219 billion in 2022. I think the writing’s on the wall that this is an industry that is no longer providing the, you know, means of wellbeing and sustenance to the planet. And it’s one that we need to work out of existence and we need to plan for that because it can’t happen overnight. And so we’re now seeing, I think, a shift where, the reality is that renewable energy and energy efficiency also had a boomer year in 2022. So that’s some good news that we can turn to. And what we need governments to be doing is having the courage to say, I am no longer, going to bend to the will of this industry that is killing my communities, that is killing the places I love. And I am going to double down on making sure the renewable energy revolution takes off in the country. I have jurisdiction over in and around the world.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Well, let’s talk about this tipping point then because, this is hopeful and as I kind of mentioned to you when, when we reached out to you, is I feel like I also, as well as seeing horrible charts about the end of the world. I also continually see news that, you know, country X has now devoted Y percentage of its energy away from fossil fuels, and that number continues to grow. And and renewables continue to get cheaper and is there a point, which I guess the governments that you’re talking about, it’s not like something that we have to beg them to do because it’s the right thing to do, that it’s just simply the only way and the cheaper way.

Catherine Abreu Exactly. So yeah, I, I love your framing of, let’s talk about these positive tipping points because we did reach actually some thrilling positive tipping points in 2022. For the first time in 2022, we saw investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, outstrip investments in fossil fuels. So we saw the levels of money being poured into the clean energy economy outstripping the money that’s being poured into the problem, and that is really positive news. The vast majority of new energy capacity that came online in electricity grids in 2022 came from renewable energy, so about 83% of the new energy that went into electricity grids in 2022 came from renewables. And the cost, as you said, of those renewables is getting cheaper and cheaper every year. Solar energy costs have declined by 90% since 2009. Wind energy costs have declined 70% in that time period. So we are really seeing this incredible takeoff, in terms of new sources of energy coming online. We’re also seeing the global economy use energy smarter, and that’s a really critical piece of the puzzle because part of the problem that we have that contributes to climate change is this relationship with energy that’s incredibly inefficient. And in 2022, we saw that the global economy was about 2% more efficient than any previous year. That 2% increase in efficiency, by the way that’s what we are looking for in global models. That’s what the IEA tells us we need to replicate year over year to get to the level of energy efficiency that we need to be on that 1.5 pathway. So we hit that last year, and that’s great news too. I think we got some real visibility in 2022 to the ways in which the fossil fuel industry stands in the way of renewable energy. And a lot of that is, through lobbying governments and through soaking up so much of the wealth that’s out there with public subsidies. You know, many governments are continuing to spend public dollars on fossil fuel infrastructure, so we’re no longer, we’re in a place now where the renewable energy technology is good to go. And the thing that’s missing is, again, government decision makers saying no to the fossil fuel lobby and saying yes to putting their political and financial resources into growing the renewable energy and energy efficient industries that will drive the energy systems of the future.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Okay. This is my last question, and it’s about one more tipping point, which is at what point does it become unavoidable for governments of all stripes to not do that? And I say this because over the past few years, as we see these natural disasters that are obviously linked to climate change, I think of what has to happen for politicians who oppose renewable energy and support fossil fuels to realize that it’s just untenable. You know, I look at the, massive heat dome over Texas as like a perfect example of like a fossil fuel state getting hit with the consequences of their actions. And obviously it’s awful for the people who are suffering. But I wonder if at some point those sorts of events will just make it inevitable that politicians have to change their tone in order for like them to survive. Or am I just dreaming?

Catherine Abreu This is a question I ask myself on a regular basis as well, so it’s a good question to ask. Do I think that these kinds of horrific climate impacts are, are making everyone around the world ask their politicians of any political stripe, Hey, what are you planning to do about climate change? Yes. Is it the case that the mere economics will force many political decision makers into supporting clean and safe energy policies? For sure. We didn’t even talk about the fact that many jurisdictions around the world now have policies to ban internal combustion engines by 2035 or 2040 right including Canada. So imagine the the huge landscape shift. That, that will create in demand for fossil fuels once many cars around the world are now running on electricity. So the, the economics will, will start to really push out fossil fuels in many cases for sure. However, the thing that we really, really need to be zeroing in on, when we talk to our political decision makers about what we expect of them is this point around the political and economic influence of the fossil fuel industry. You know, we now see in the US that while Biden is talking a good talk with the IRA, he’s also signing agreements to build fossil fuel pipelines to appease one senator. And these kinds of situations where, political deal making and the demands of the elite to keep getting richer are being favoured over the decision to listen to constituents and make decisions that are best for their wellbeing has to stop. And I think that is an area where we, in our advocacy have to be getting a lot clearer and start saying, our wellbeing is not associated with the wellbeing of this industry. In fact, this industry is actively working to undermine my personal wellbeing and the wellbeing of people I care about. And so, hey politician. I need you to stop listening to the demands of the fossil fuel industry and start listening to the demands of my community, which just says we need energy services and we want those to come from clean energy.

Jordan Heath Rawlings And that’s the critical tipping point I guess. Cat, thank you so much for this. I know it started out depressing. It’s great to also talk about positive tipping points as well.

Catherine Abreu Thanks, Jordan.

Jordan Heath Rawlings Catherine Abreu, Executive Director of Destination Zero. That was The Big Story. I wish we had better news for you, but it’s nice to have some positivity in there. And hey, if it helps us all make a push, then it’s worth sifting through some bad news. You can find us anytime @TheBigStoryfpn on Twitter, we are also now on threads. You can go and find us on Threads if you’re getting all into the new social media channels very soon. We will be on Blue Sky and you can find us there as well. If what you really want is to follow the every social media update of your favourite Daily News podcast. If you just wanna talk to us and don’t wanna bother with social media. You can email us hello@TheBigStorypodcast.ca, or you can call us and leave a voicemail. 416-935-5935 is that number. Thanks for listening. I’m Jordan Heath Rawlings. We have a special themed week for you next week. It is for all of you who call us too Toronto centric or too city centric in general. We’re going on some trips. Thanks for listening, and we’ll talk Monday.